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Strategies & Market Trends : Fundamental Value Investing

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To: bruwin who wrote (4693)7/5/2025 11:06:05 AM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) of 4719
 
I have always seen MU as a commodity company. My first & last short in the mid 1990's and it was a loser. It is good to watch as a baramater of the entire industry and now their fast chips used in AI build out.

I think the growth & value trade/buy is in the equipment that is used. AMAT fit that bill but hard to find other companies that are reasonably priced that will get that growth.

Typically you look at the PEG ratio but one must understand how it is calculated. It is based on 'Earnings" and tries to capture 'earnings growth'. It uses trailing12 month earnings but if there are acquisitions, onetime adjustments to intangible assets and/or other one time factors that impact the EPS calculation, the PEG could be overstated.

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Teradyne Inc (TER) provides test equipment to the sector and is one I have followed (and own) for years. I only started to build a position w/ my first Buys 4/2025 at/below $70. I still think it is an excellent Buy if I can buy now at/below $90 and on a reversion to the mean play could see $140/share or higher. That's a +50% gainer from current levels.

AI Gemini

Teradyne Inc (TER) has a Forecast 12 Month Forward PEG Ratio of 4.12 as of July 3, 2025.

Its current Piotroski F-score is 8. . . But PEG is suspect to me?

So I asked to check other sources & explain why:

Here are PEG ratios for Teradyne Inc (TER) from different sources:


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The significant differences in Teradyne Inc. (TER) PEG ratios across various sources can be attributed to several factors, primarily revolving around the inputs used in the PEG ratio calculation: the P/E ratio and, more critically, the earnings growth rate.

Here's a breakdown of what might account for the discrepancies:

  1. Definition of P/E Ratio Used:

    • Trailing P/E vs. Forward P/E: Some sources use a trailing twelve-month (TTM) P/E ratio (price divided by earnings over the past 12 months), while others use a forward P/E ratio (price divided by estimated future earnings, often for the next 12 months or fiscal year). Teradyne, for example, has a trailing P/E of 26.60 and a forward P/E of 24.27 (MarketBeat). The choice between these two will immediately impact the numerator of the PEG ratio.

  2. Estimation of Earnings Growth Rate: This is arguably the most impactful variable.

    • Time Horizon: The earnings growth rate can be based on different time horizons:

      • Next 12 months (Forward Growth): Nasdaq's "Forecast 12 Month Forward PEG Ratio" uses this. For TER, analysts expect earnings to grow from $3.88 to $5.10 per share in the next year, representing a 31.44% increase (MarketBeat). If this growth rate is used, it significantly lowers the PEG.

      • Next 3-5 Years (Long-Term Growth): Many analysts and platforms use a 3-year or 5-year annualized expected growth rate to smooth out short-term volatility (Investopedia, Wall Street Prep). These long-term projections can vary significantly among analysts and data providers. For example, Zacks indicates an expected EPS growth of 36.7% for fiscal 2026 after a projected decline in 2025.

      • Historical (Trailing) Growth: Some sources might use historical EPS growth rates (e.g., past 1 year, 3 years, or 5 years) for a "Trailing PEG." This can be vastly different from forward-looking estimates, especially for companies in cyclical industries like semiconductors or those undergoing significant business changes.

    • Analyst Consensus vs. Individual Analyst Estimates: Most financial websites use a consensus estimate from a pool of analysts. However, the specific analysts included, and how their estimates are weighted, can differ.

    • GAAP vs. Non-GAAP Earnings: Companies often report both GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) and non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings. Non-GAAP earnings exclude certain items (like restructuring charges, amortization of acquired intangibles, etc.) that management considers non-recurring or not reflective of core operations. If one source uses GAAP EPS and another uses non-GAAP EPS, their growth rate calculations will differ. Teradyne's Q1 2025 results show both GAAP EPS of $0.60 and reported (likely non-GAAP adjusted) EPS of $0.75 (MarketBeat, Nasdaq).

  3. One-Time Adjustments / Non-Recurring Items:

    • While not explicitly stated as a reason for PEG differences in the search results, one-time adjustments can significantly impact reported earnings (both trailing and future projections).

    • Teradyne's Q1 2025 earnings report mentioned beating estimates with an adjusted EPS, suggesting adjustments for non-recurring items (Nasdaq/Zacks, April 28, 2025). The SEC filing mentions exclusions for "acquired intangible asset amortization, restructuring and other charges, amortization on our investment in Technoprobe, legal settlement, pension mark-to-market." These adjustments mean that the "E" in the P/E ratio, and consequently the earnings growth, can be higher or lower depending on whether these items are included or excluded.

    • For instance, if a company has a large one-time gain, its TTM EPS would be inflated, potentially leading to an artificially low P/E and thus a low PEG, even if future growth prospects are not strong. Conversely, a large one-time charge could temporarily depress EPS, making the PEG seem high. Analysts often try to "normalize" earnings to account for such one-off events when calculating forward-looking metrics.

  4. Forward PEG and Public Relations (PR):

    • Forward PEG specifically uses expected future earnings growth. As seen, Nasdaq provides a "Forecast 12 Month Forward PEG Ratio." This is generally considered a more insightful metric than a trailing PEG because it looks to the future, which is what investors are buying.

    • "Lit PR" (Public Relations / Press Releases): While not directly a component of the PEG calculation, company press releases and investor relations communications (like earnings calls and investor presentations) are crucial for analysts to form their earnings and growth forecasts.

      • Teradyne's Q1 2025 results (April 28, 2025) and its guidance for Q2 2025 and full-year 2025/2026 (MarketBeat, Shawnee Feed and Grain) provide the basis for these forward-looking estimates.

      • The company's outlook on demand, capital expenditures, product introductions (e.g., "Production System for Double-Sided Wafer Probe Test for Silicon Photonics" on March 31, 2025), and strategic partnerships all influence analyst expectations for future growth. If the company provides optimistic or cautious guidance, analysts will adjust their models accordingly, impacting the projected growth rate and thus the Forward PEG.

In summary, the variation in Teradyne's PEG ratios primarily stems from:

  • The specific P/E ratio (trailing vs. forward) used.

  • The chosen earnings growth rate (1-year forward, 3-5 year long-term, or historical), and how analysts derive these forecasts.

  • Whether earnings are adjusted for one-time, non-recurring items.

Therefore, when comparing PEG ratios, it's crucial to understand the methodology and inputs of each source. A "Forecast 12 Month Forward PEG Ratio" is often preferred for its forward-looking nature, but even these can differ based on the underlying analyst consensus used.

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So perhaps you take MU's & AMAT information to look out the nest 18 months and calculate PEG using an estimate of "Forward EPS". Also notice the one time adjustments TER had

"acquired intangible asset amortization, restructuring and other charges, amortization on our investment in Technoprobe, legal settlement, pension mark-to-market."
which would have impacted 12 month trailing EPS and impacting the calculated PEG.

If the 'true' PEG is at/near 0.75, an argument can be made for more accelerated growth (they did mention that in their conference call).

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and this observation by the AI:

Yes, customers who use Applied Materials (AMAT) technology are very likely to also use Teradyne (TER) technology within the same semiconductor fabrication facility (fab). Their roles are complementary and essential to the complete chip manufacturing process.

Here's why:

  • Distinct Stages of Semiconductor Manufacturing:

    • Applied Materials (AMAT) is a leader in front-end semiconductor manufacturing equipment. This stage involves the foundational processes of creating the integrated circuits (ICs) on silicon wafers. AMAT's expertise lies in "materials engineering solutions" – depositing, shaping, removing, modifying, analyzing, and connecting materials at an atomic level to build the chip's intricate structures (Source 2.3, 4.2). This includes processes like deposition, etching, ion implantation, and chemical mechanical planarization (CMP). These steps define the transistors, resistors, and capacitors on the wafer.

    • Teradyne (TER) is a leading supplier of automated test equipment (ATE), which is primarily used in the back-end of the semiconductor manufacturing process, specifically for testing. Once the chips are fabricated on the wafer (front-end), and then cut into individual dies and packaged, they need rigorous testing to ensure they function correctly and meet specifications (Source 4.4, 5.1). Teradyne's equipment tests semiconductors, wireless products, data storage, and complex electronic systems (Source 4.2). They ensure "known good die (KGD)" and "known good interposer (KGI)" processes (Source 2.2).

  • Complementary Roles in a Fab:

    • A semiconductor fab needs both "front-end" and "back-end" capabilities. You can't have a finished, functional chip without both. Applied Materials builds the chip, and Teradyne (or a competitor like Advantest) tests it.

    • The two processes are highly interdependent: "Front-end process adjustments are normally made based on results and feedback from back-end testing. With rigorous testing, failures can tracked back to the specific areas of the manufacturing process where they happened, and engineers can make adjustments to front-end processes like refining lithography masks or modifying deposition techniques" (Source 5.2). This highlights the feedback loop between the two stages.

    • Therefore, any major chip manufacturer (like Intel, Samsung, TSMC, or even integrated device manufacturers like Qualcomm that rely on foundries) will almost certainly have both types of equipment in their workflow, either directly or through their outsourced manufacturing and testing partners.

  • Customer Overlap:

    • While the search results don't provide a direct list showing "TER and AMAT shared customers," the nature of their products dictates that their major customers (semiconductor foundries, IDMs, and fabless companies that outsource to these foundries) are indeed the same. They are both integral parts of the semiconductor supply chain (Source 3.1).

    • Morningstar refers to both AMAT and TER as "semiconductor suppliers" with "leading market share" in their respective areas (Source 1.4), implying they serve the same overall industry and customer base for different purposes.


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While a precise ratio isn't available, the general understanding is that:

  • A significant portion of the total capital expenditure (capex) in a new fab goes into front-end equipment (like AMAT's offerings), which is far more expensive per unit and comprises many more distinct process steps than back-end testing. Front-end manufacturing is associated with very high upfront investment, around $20 billion for the most modern foundries, while back-end costs are lower, in the single-digit billions (Source 5.2).

  • However, automated test equipment (ATE), where Teradyne excels, is a critical bottleneck for final product quality and throughput. While numerically fewer units than front-end tools, they are high-value and indispensable for ensuring quality. "More than half of the world's semiconductors are tested using Teradyne machines" (Source 4.4), indicating their widespread adoption in this final stage.

In essence, AMAT is critical for making the chip, and TER is critical for verifying the chip's functionality, and both are indispensable for any modern semiconductor manufacturing facility.

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These companies may be other candidates that I need to research more

Here are 5 other companies (and their tickers) that provide backend processing, testing, and/or quality control in today's semiconductor fabrication environments, besides Teradyne:

  1. Advantest Corporation (OTC: ATEYY or TSE: 6857)

    • Focus: A major competitor to Teradyne in Automated Test Equipment (ATE), providing test and measurement equipment for the design and production of semiconductors, including system-level testing.

  2. Cohu, Inc. (NASDAQ: COHU)

    • Focus: A global technology leader in back-end semiconductor equipment and services, supplying test handlers, semiconductor testers (ATE), interface solutions, and inspection & metrology products. They cover the entire test cell and inspection needs.

  3. Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: KLIC)

    • Focus: Primarily provides capital equipment and services for the semiconductor assembly and packaging industries. This includes wire bonders, die bonders, and advanced packaging solutions, which are critical back-end processes after wafer fabrication.

  4. Camtek Ltd. (NASDAQ: CAMT)

    • Focus: Develops, manufactures, and sells inspection and metrology equipment for the semiconductor industry. This is crucial for quality control and process optimization in various stages, including back-end.

  5. Nordson Test & Inspection (Part of Nordson Corporation, NASDAQ: NDSN)

    • Focus: While Nordson is a larger diversified company, its Test & Inspection division provides high-accuracy, high-resolution inspection and metrology equipment for electronics manufacturing and semiconductor applications. Their products include acoustic microscopy, automated optical inspection (AOI), automated X-ray inspection (AXI), and bond testing.


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I have owned KLIC in the past and have done well. I think finding undervalued 'Backend' equipment testing companies could complement AMAT if one can find at the right price.

TER has a 8 F-Score and they continue to update their balance sheet. Notice their adjustment for mark-to-market of their pension liabilities so that adjustment takes care of future obligations.
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