Dave: I will not argue the technology point, I think they do have some advantages. History, however, says that technological advantages without the financial muscles to deploy the technology in the field is worthless. Within two years we are going to see the first 300 mm fabs, Trikon does not have the resources to follow that transition with new products, so they may have the best technology for 200 mm fabs which will no longer be the growth segment of the market.
Beware of technological wizards, the anals of investment are litered with their bodies. Look at DEC and their alpha chip, undeniably the best chip around, yet they have less than 1% of the market. Look at CYRX, a technology in many ways superior to Intel, yet they have been like a catsy phoenix rising and falling with each new MARKETING trick Intel is throwing their way (by the way, over the last few years I have been positive and negative on Cyrix more times that I care to count, and now I am positive). Look at the now defunct Trilogy, the only company that demonstrated wafer scale integration, they were mismanaged financially, and the stock holders were left holding the empty bag.
If they do not turn to positive cash flow within the next two quarters, Trikon is dead. The only way to do that is drastic cuts in overhead costs (and elimination of the Wales facility or possibly California facility, depending where the power center is).
Put yourself in the shoes of Intel, IBM or some of other companies that have already tried and enjoyed Trikon technological advances. Are they going to commit millions of scarce capital for equipment if they doubt the viability of future support for that equipment?
I think, Dave, that TRKN is even a riskier investment now than it was six months ago when we started this discussion.
I will grant you that their technology has some advantages, but I will also grant you that this advantage is fleeting, and unless exploited now to make TRKN a major player and do it fast, this technology will be superceded by advances from the like of AMAT and LRCX.
Zeev |
