Tech,
Is NVT A Better Investment Than Garmin?
I do believe that NVT is a safer investment than Garmin over the long run; however, Garmin could provide a better return over the short term. So, it depends on your timeline.
To radically simplify things, I see NVT as a Microsoft (but) with just one software product. They can tier the amount of information in a database, but they will not be offering a software suite like MS Office on top of their “operating system.” SiRF is like Intel, and Garmin and TomTom are like Dell or Compaq. New and serious players are entering the market to mix things up even more. Dell had the best run. Intel made money staying at the top of the performance ladder. Andy Daoust has switched from a Dell to an Intel. I won’t argue with his reasoning.
At one point, I thought that Qualcomm’s solution might take some thunder from Garmin’s sales, but QCOM hasn’t pushed their GPS solution very hard up to this point. Nokia will be pushing hard this year, from what I’ve read. The companies u-Blox and TeleNav will give everyone a run for their money, IMO. I very much want to discover what an acceptable performance level for GPS is in the consumer LBS market. I will put a lot my money in the company that gets there first.
Navteq … is a much safer investment with better reward/risk ratio.
Yes, it’s much safer. The reward/risk ratio may also tip toward NVT. Garmin will need to differentiate themselves from all the other GPS manufactures wanting to enter the LBS market in the near future. This absolutely requires an internet connection via a mobile phone or data card – even if they have to start with WiFi. If Garmin decide to move in this direction, they may be able to maintain their market lead for several years while the LBS market grows quickly over the next few years. Garmin will also need to become more of a systems integrator with internet servers to push relevant (requested) data to a handset, but they may be afraid to move into uncharted territory. This is what I will be looking for.
I basically agree with your three points regarding Navteq.
If I had only two options in my 401K investments, I would put 60% on Navteq and 40% into Garmin. If after a year Garmin have not started to move to provide leading-edge LBS, I would start moving out of Garmin.
FWIW. |
