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Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004
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To: American Spirit who wrote (4698)9/12/2003 6:23:52 PM
From: American Spirit  Read Replies (1) of 10965
 
Possible Democrat Convention Deadlock in 2004:

In the end, the Dem race may go all the way to the convention. I could see the delegate/vote count going something like this:

Kerry, Gephardt, Dean - 20% each
Clark, Lieberman - 12.5% each
Edwards, Sharpton, Graham - 5% each

If that happens, the also-rans will decide who wins along with the DNC and all their Super Delegates. Some horse-trading will be done. Dean will be the outsider and not be able to cut any big deals. Kerry and Gephardt will duke it out. Unions versus other big powers in the party. Kerry will win because all the big senators prefer him as does the DNC leadership. Veep will be either Clark or Graham.

I just don't see anyone running away with this one. Every time there's a frontrunner he gets attacked from all sides so much he falls back again. Kerry has already gone through this once. Dean is going through it now. Gephardt wioll get hit if he takes the lead.

It's a long-long horse race. Many candidates have different advantages. Dean and Kerry won't be able to destroy one another and both have enough $$ to go all the way to the end. But Dean is a loner while Kerry is a widely respected diplomat. That could end up being the difference.
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