kind of bullish!!!!
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: SteveO who wrote msg# 31968 Date:10/3/2002 7:03:15 PM
Post #of 31982
So far during this whole bear market, it was not dangerous to be low in cash when the equity P/C ratio was above 1.00, a sizeable bounce followed within a week of such an event. Sure, until the end of this month (nominally 10/22), such bounces have a good chance of being beaten back. For the conservative crowd, concentrate in issues that have made recent new highs and get back in them on retrenchments, use mechanical stops of about 8% to 10% if you cannot identify a better support. Better yet, for the conservative one, use #msg-511231 to play some "safe" Dow stocks, you probably can get IBM well under $60 (stop should probably be just under $55), and MMM could be gotten a little cheaper than $116. Those that went with that might have taken a small loss on IBM and could either replace it at a lower cost or not play IBM. I think that people are a little impatient because the market is grinding every one down, but the market is not doing anything that was not expected, sharp rallies like we had two days ago will come again, but for the next two three weeks, they will probably be false. Unfortunately, there is no way to say when the real McCoy will occur.
I know that a lot of people think that this is just another leg down in this multi leg bear market, but I disagree, I believe we are facing soon a very nice cyclical bull move equal to or even better to last September's run. |
