India seemed a little "too good to be true", as indeed it is. The politics are unbelievable... Here is a little research I dug up.
"After presiding over an open-house here on Tuesday, Mr. Verma told presspersons informally that the new Telecom Policy, 1999 had envisaged a framework which would facilitate an enhanced national tele-density of 15 per hundred by 2010 from 2.5 per hundred at present."
India Est. Pop - 1,008,100,968
Estimated buildout: 125,000,000 subs in 10 years or 12.5 million a year.
GSM will get 2/3 of the rural buildout or around 8 million a year, leaving around 4 million CDMA WLL new subs annually. Based on the politics, I wouldn't take these numbers to the bank until the check clears. Unfortunately, one thing appears for sure, unless Hundai knows something India's DOT doesn't, we won't be seeing First Union's 10 Billion before tax income anytime soon.
Here's the articles which I deducted this from, plus a little history of CDMA WLL in India(note: 1st article from "98"). These articles were sourced from "The Hindu".
Qualcomm, C-DoT sign WLL accord
Date: 03-01-1998 :: Pg: 07 :: Col: e
Our Bureau
CHENNAI, Jan. 2
US-based Qualcomm Inc has announced the signing of an agreement with the Centre for Development of Telematics (C-DoT) to jointly develop a ``V5.2'' interface between C-DoT's telecom switches and Qualcomm's CDMA QCore Base Station Controllers (BSCs). ``Once the interface is developed, C-DoT's family of digital switches and Qualcomm cdmaOne (IS-95 Code Division Multiple Access) infrastructure equipment will be able to be integrated, providing cost effective wireless local loop solutions for global markets, including India,'' the company said in a release.
The ``mutually beneficial'' agreement is expected to enable the two companies to jointly pursue wireless local loop (WLL) opportunities in the global market.
``We are confident that this new system architecture will provide a cost effective solution to basic telecommunications service providers worldwide,'' Mr. K. N. Gupta, Executive Director, C- DoT, said in the release.
``As a result of this agreement, the C-DoT system will accommodate CDMA-based wireless local loop technology, so that rural as well as suburban telecom services can be further enhanced,'' added Mr. Marshall Towe Jr., Qualcomm's Regional Vice-President of infrastructure sales, Asia.
The V5.2 interface is an open interface standard between the switch and the BSC in a wireless local loop system. The interface allows equipment from different vendors to communicate based on a standard set of specifications, allowing operators to choose network elements from multiple vendors.
The V5.2 interface is expected to benefit C-DoT's licencees by giving them access to a new architecture for WLL systems. Qualcomm is already working with Indian Telephone Industries (ITI), the largest manufacturer of C-DoT switches. ``Operators who have already deployed C-DoT switches will be able to easily migrate their systems to support CDMA wireless local loop network elements,'' the Qualcomm release said.
C-DoT, an autonomous Research & Development organisation of the Department of Telecommunications (DoT), has a cost-effective family of digital switches ranging from 200 to 40,000 lines.
There are already 20,000 exchanges based on C-DoT technology supporting more than six million lines in the Indian telecom network. C-DoT also has an established base of switches deployed in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Headquartered in San Diego, Qualcomm develops, manufactures, markets, licenses and operates advanced communications systems and products based on its proprietary digital wireless technologies.
Qualcomm has supplied India's first commercial CDMA wireless local loop system, operated by Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) in New Delhi. The company has also deployed commercial systems in Russia, and has agreements to deploy WLL systems in Bangladesh, Nigeria, the Philippines, and Ukraine.
TRAI report on fixed telecom services in six weeks
Our Bureau
CALCUTTA, July 4
THE Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) is expected to submit to the Union Government it's recommendations on licensing issues relating to fixed service providers within the next six weeks. Currently, TRAI is engaged in open-house discussions on the matter with telecom service providers, NGOs and the public.
According to Mr. M.S. Verma, Chairman of TRAI, open-house sessions held on the issue in Mumbai and Chennai had thrown up various contentious issues which required to be deliberated upon before recommendations were put forth for the consideration of the Centre.
After presiding over an open-house here on Tuesday, Mr. Verma told presspersons informally that the new Telecom Policy, 1999 had envisaged a framework which would facilitate an enhanced national tele-density of 15 per hundred by 2010 from 2.5 per hundred at present. World class services had been envisaged at affordable prices. This was proposed to be achieved by facilitating the entry of multiple operators in the telecom sector.
Among the fundamental issues on which TRAI's
recommendations would hinge would be the emerging size and structure of direct exchange lines. The challenge would be to regulate charges to make telephones affordable. Financial viability in telecom sector operations was an imperative, if an oligopolistic structure was to be maintained.
However, the Department of Telecom Services strongly felt that initial costs of connectivity and low realisations per line was a great challenge to profitable operations. The problem of high per-line capital investment could, however, be largely overcome by adopting wireless in local loop (WLL) technology.
It was suggested that doing away with bi-monthly rentals could provide a fillip to the demand for telephones. Subscribers could be charged higher for calls made by them. Such a strategy in China had resulted in a surge in the demand for telephone connections.
Responding to suggestions to the effect, the TRAI chairman ruled out guaranteed returns on investment in the telecom sector, even if there were social costs involved. He, however, felt basic telephone services in urban areas could not be packaged with services in lesser-revenue generating areas.
While opening up the sector to private players for effective penetration, it would not be appropriate to treat differences in revenue generating potential with the same yardstick. The cost of administering the licence, the cost of universal services obligation and the rent in the sector were among the issues that would have to be delved into. To facilitate the growth of rural telecom, it would be necessary to stress upon incentives rather than policing.
Mr. Verma said the scope of services in basic telephony were dependent upon emerging convergence technologies and felt there was a case for packaging a range of basic services for the benefit of subscribers. In fact, with convergence technologies -- and in the event of voice-over-Internet being permitted by the Government at a later date -- it would become necessary to re-define the concept of basic telephony itself.
Row over rural telephony technology -- Paswan calls industry meet today
Partha Ghosh
NEW DELHI, Aug. 30
THE Communications Minister, Mr. Ram Vilas Paswan, has called a meeting with industry representatives on Thursday in an attempt to settle the growing controversy over the Department of Telecommunications' (DoT) decision to rethink on the use of code division multiple access (CDMA)-based Wireless in Local Loop (WLL) technology for providing telephony in remote rural areas.
The DoT has set up an expert committee to consider the issue internally, according to the Secretary, Mr. Shyamal Ghosh. The project involves installation of 60,000 new lines of CDMA-based WLL system in remote rural areas. Mr. Ghosh says the quotes ``are very steep and do not seem to provide adequate cost-benefits.'' Hence, use of alternate technology such as GSM/TDMA is not ruled out.
Rural telephony being the top priority on the Minister's list of business, the issue has taken an interesting twist as any controversy now will only delay the project, according to a Minister's aide.
It has also managed to divide the telecom industry -- service providers, equipment suppliers and manufacturers -- into the CDMA and GSM lobbies. During the week, several parties concerned were huddled in closed-door meetings to draw up their strategies for Thursday's meet.
In a strong plea to the Minister, a section of the industry, especially equipment suppliers, has tried to impress upon the fact that GSM (TDMA) technology may not be the most appropriate technology to take telephony to the remote villages and comparisons should not be drawn between prices being quoted by the CDMA equipment suppliers in the rural tenders and GSM equipment quotes for Delhi and Mumbai, where the subscriber base is very high.
The companies' officials were unwilling to be quoted on the issue. But sources say that the entire issue cropped up following heavy lobbying by a section of the industry about the inherent advantages of GSM/TDMA technology and its future evolution capabilities. It has strongly recommended deployment of third-generation (3G) networks to provide high data speeds (up to 2Mbps).
It may be recalled that at a recent meeting with the Minister, the cellular operators (GSM service providers) had proposed that cellular technology be used to provide VPTs. Their plea: They were already covering around 60,000 villages through the existing networks. Subsequently, a panel was set up in the Ministry to peruse the matter.
On the other hand, the WLL lobby, which includes a few companies that have submitted bids and have spent crores on equipment-testing alone, contend that the evolution to 3G is possible only through CDMA, which their opponents are not talking about. It also argues that CDMA is a cheaper technology, citing examples in Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh and the roaring success of MTNL's so-called poor man's mobile project in Delhi.
According to them, their quotes include cost of solar panels (because of the grim power situation in villages), terminals and a steep customs duty component. If GSM equipment are used, the costs will be much higher as they will have to use additional mobile switching equipment.
In fact, the TEC (part of DoT) had over the last two years, evaluated all kinds of wireless technology starting from TDMA, PHS, DECT and CDMA and had found TDMA (IS 54) and CDMA (IS 95A) qualifying to meet its requirements. However, when it came to qualifying in stringent rural conditions, only the CDMA-based WLL could pass the field-worthiness test. DoT officials agree.
GSM gets two-thirds of rural telephony pie
Partha Ghosh
NEW DELHI, Oct. 1
IN a move that is likely to set the future course of telephony in the country, the Government has decided to use GSM-based systems -- currently also being used for cellular mobile services -- for providing rural telephony.
According to the Union Communications Minister, Mr Ram Vilas Paswan, code division multiple access (CDMA)-based wireless in local loop (WLL) systems will be used for only two lakh new lines, instead of the original six lakh lines for the proposed remote rural telephony project. The remaining lines will be installed using GSM equipment.
The sources told Business Line that the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has invited fresh tenders for the two lakh lines, to be installed using CDMA-WLL systems. Hence, prices will have to be reworked. GSM equipment suppliers have also been asked to submit technical bids for 1.5 million lines, it was reliably learnt.
Use of GSM equipment for rural telephony would imply that as and when cellular operators are allowed to provide village public telephones -- an option which the Government is considering -- the transition path will be easier.
However, industry experts point out that if GSM is preferred over CDMA-WLL, the consumer will have to dole out more. MTNL's CDMA-WLL-based mobile telephony services in Delhi is available at Rs 1.40 for a three minute call. On the other hand, the tariff for GSM services offered by cellular operators is Rs 4 for a one-minute call.
DoT had recently invited tenders for installing WLL systems (for six lakh new lines) in rural areas. However, it expressed its desire to use alternate technology as the price quoted by the bidders was considered to be on the higher side.
The Government's decision was, however, said to be influenced by the GSM lobby, including cellular service providers who claimed they were equipped to provide rural telephony -- they were already covering over 50,000 villages through their existing networks -- even as the licensees for basic services had failed to achieve their rural telephony targets.
While the GSM lobby recommended deployment of third-generation networks to provide high data speeds (up to two MBPs) since the Government was talking on the lines of Internet dhabas, etc, which would imply an increase in data traffic over voice in the near future, the WLL lobby insisted that the transition to 3-G will be easier through CDMA, even GSM networks will have to use new CDMA equipment to do so. Besides, the per line cost if GSM equipment was used in stringent rural conditions would be higher, they contended.
The issue snowballed into a major controversy as the CDMA-WLL equipment suppliers, among them those who had bid for the contract, came out in the open protesting the Government's decision to rethink on technology. The CDMA-WLL technology is TEC-approved since the last two years and several of these companies have spent crores on field tests alone. In fact one of the bidders, LG Communications India Ltd, even threatened ``to freeze investments in India owing to the Government's apathy towards the CDMA-WLL equipment suppliers''.
Following these, the Government decided to set up a committee to consider the matter. The decision to use a mix of technology was taken recently, Mr Paswan said.
The TEC had over the last two years evaluated all kinds of wireless technology starting from TDMA, PHS, DECT and CDMA and had found TDMA (IS 54) and CDMA (IS 95A) qualifying to meet the requirements of TEC. However, when it came to qualifying in stringent rural conditions, only CDMA-based WLL could pass the field worthiness test. |
