Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: TREND1 who wrote (47238)	4/4/2002 8:54:31 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) of 99280

Larry, you're in agreement with Da_cheif that Sept. 2001 was just a re-test of the Oct. 1998 lows and we're not going to go any lower than that level? Just because it's never happened doesn't mean it can't happen. I recall most of us thought the Nasdaq couldn't be down on Dec. 31st since it had been up nearly every Dec. 31st (if not all, I can't remember), but it went down. We have a bubble going all the way back to 1996. I place maximum low fair crash value on the COMP at around 880 by October this year, so 1296 is a generous multiple based on historical stock market returns. I base Fair crash value upon the 1987 or 1990 crash with 288 or 324 as the base and applying nearly 10% historical market rates of return off a previous crash low. I believe that if you apply crash lows as a base and add historical rates of return you can approximate a maximum low crash value.

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