Kelvin - Re: Cyrix & AMD
If you follow the Cyrix thread, the Cyrix believers have been predicting massive adoption of the phantom 5GX86 by Compaq and many others for an NC machine. Do I believe it? Well, it is possible, but where are the announcments?
The high speed Pentium Pro shortages will not be alleviated by anyone but Intel. It is a unique device with a unique pin out.
Only a wholesale motherboard swap (i.e., Pentium Pro out/Cyrix MB in) would work.
Now, let's look at the timing. It is now Oct. 31. If a company ordered chips from Cyrix, it would take a week before the paper work and shipping could be completed. Then, motherbaords would have to be ordered. I'm guessing there is a 2 week minimum lead time here. Assembly and test will take another two weeks, on average - assuming no other componenet shortages.
So, AT BEST, a perfect execution would allow a box maker to have something ready to ship by Dec. 1.
While the box maker is doing this Cyrix Substitution, his marketing & sales folks have to be hammering on their own customers that - hey, this-Cyrix -Stuff-will-be-just-as-good-as-the-Intel-stuff-and-forget what-we-said-three-months-ago-about-the-Cyrix-stuff-not-being-any-good.
Thus, the switch to Cyrix will mean OEMs backtracking on their "Intel-Only" policy, converting of downstream customers, and basically running in the face of the Intel Inside juggernaut that they themselves have been a party to.
And they would have three weeks remaining to ship these to retail outlets for the Christmas shopping season.
Slim chance of major success for Cyrix.
AMD produces 133 MHz ("equivalent") K5 chips. These may be compatible with Intel devices, but the word on the street is that Intel has no trouble making low speed (<166 MHz) Pentium devices.
AMD wil sell some, but they will not pick up major business.
As for investment opportunity - Hope springs eternal. I have found AMD's stock price irresistable at $12.5 and I bought a bunch about two months ago.
As for Cyrix, I think money can be made on their stock in the short term with all the hype and anticipated "announcements". At $18 or less, I'd say buy some and cash in your chips when you have made a reasonable profit in a few weeks or months.
Long term prognosis - patient needs a heart transplant - a donor organ is needed badly!
Paul |
