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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII)
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To: joel chess who wrote (4708)3/26/1998 11:53:00 PM
From: SteveG  Read Replies (1) of 12468
 
<..but the month ended yesterday without any such extensions-- My interpretation of this is that the 1/4 will be ok but not great..>

Joel, if by "ok but not great" you mean revenues flat with Q4, in all respect, I would HAVE to seriously doubt this. As last quarter, the revenue numbers will likely be the most closely watched (knowing that earnings are expected to be sequentially lower for quite awhile yet)

WCII management is (as ALL top management is) VERY aware of the value of tempering the street's expectations and then beating them. As you report, their decision to NOT make use of a potential extension seems pretty bullish to me... ie., they've MADE Q1 and can use the extension numbers for Q2.

For reference, last Q (Q4) had revenues of $30MM and earnings loss of <$85.4MM> = EPS <$2.50>

Consensus estimates:
First Call is looking for an earnings loss of <$90.9MM> = EPS <$2.66>
I/B/E/S is looking for an earnings loss of <$87.1MM> = EPS <$2.57>
Zacks is looking for an earnings loss of <$87.8MM> = EPS <$2.55>

NBMO is looking for: revenues of $45.4MM
and earnings loss of <87.5MM> = EPS <2.56>

CSFB is looking for revenues of $46.7MM
and earnings loss of <$91.1MM> = <$2.67>

(I can't find my recent Grubman numbers. Steven?)

I would expect WCII to BEAT their revenue number. First Call is most often considered the "street's" consensus. We'll know in ~6 weeks.

Steve
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