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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 156.96-1.7%11:02 AM EST
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To: Investor2 who wrote (4738)2/7/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
I find this situation with SFAM interesting, for the following reasons.

(1) There hasn't been much after-hours movement in the shares,

(2) AMAT is scheduled to announce earnings (I think) on Tuesday.

Does anyone know what the market perceives the content of AMAT's statement to be? Will AMAT meet its 'whisper' numbers, etc.? The reason I make the point is the following:

Both SFAM and AMAT seem to have a good deal of Asian exposure. My assessment at this point is that *IF* AMAT has really disappointing numbers on Tuesday, it will drag the whole sector down, especially those with exposure to Asia. *IF* SFAM institutional share holders catch this drift, they might decide to bail on the stock on Monday, causing an exaggerated sell-off (how far down that will take SFAM is anybody's guess.) A subsequent point to this is, for those looking to jump in on SFAM, the damage might not be finished until after AMAT's announcement on Tuesday. Another point of this is that if AMAT has good numbers, of course you would want to get in on whatever downdraft occurs Monday morning (this just goes to suggest that there is risk associated with the shares - I'm sure you didn't know that.) However, we might get an indication of what's up with AMAT (in terms of market perceptions about Tuesday) by what happens with SFAM Monday morning, and if the sell-off is big, => the market fears AMAT's announcement and you might want to hold off on the fireside sale until after the fire has burned itself out.

jess.
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