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Gold/Mining/Energy : American International Petroleum Corp
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To: Claire G who wrote (474)7/18/1997 11:27:00 PM
From: Daniel P. Dwyer   of 11888
 
Here is my opinion for what it's worth. A lot of people who were itching to get out north of 2 did so, and that may relieve the selling pressure next time volume increases, unless of course we have some dramatically upsetting news, like molasses instead of oil. The stock will probably remain flat until July 28. There's not much chance of an information leak prior to that. Who is going to leak? If the news is good you will see the analysts running for the phone like that scene in Airplane with the reporters. Or, the stock may move up in anticipation of cheery news. I don't think we are going to see a fall from grace before that date. My bet is that they have two or three offers to partner and they will announce the winner then. Someone said OXYPETE before. They may be right with their Russian experience. The world economy will be exploding in the next five years beyond the dreams of even the most opitimistic. The demaind for oil will escalate accordinngly. Over the last few years the price of oil has become relatively elastic compared to other years. We have adjusted to higher prices. So, the best way for oil companies to raise revenue is not so much to raise prices (they'll do this, of course), but to increase supply slightly behind the rise in demand so as to support bearable prices that won't cause any dramatic change in people's habits. OPEC has been doing this since the last oil shock, which long term was not in their best interests. Big oil knows the lesson well, and they know they have to be ready with large supplies. They will take every reasonable risk possible to deliver. Are AIPN and their concessions reasonable risks? Time will tell and perhaps the time is July 28, assuming that meeting date is accurate.
Dan Dwyer
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