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Strategies & Market Trends : Playing the QQQQ with Terry and friends.

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To: da_cheif™ who wrote (4746)5/10/2009 11:07:29 PM
From: Walkingshadow   of 4814
 
Here's another disaster waiting to happen (again): China.

People have been lulled into this rally pretty successfully. Now the index is testing the 200 sma. I think this index hasn't come close to the bottom yet.

Every bubble I know of has lost 78% - 85% of its value, peak to trough. And, the recovery back to previous highs takes a quarter century or more (usually more). But the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices only lost about 70% of their values, and this happened in an extremely short time period, as bubbles go (1 year). From the October 2008 bottom, the Shanghai index has rallied about 54%.

I think these indices will eventually see 1200 (or lower). That would be a loss of 80% from the highs of late 2007.

The economy of China is unraveling steadily. Unemployment is horrendous and getting worse. Inflation is probably 8% to 10% a year, realistically. Hundreds of thousands of businesses have gone belly-up. Countryside workers have mostly left the cities and gone home because there's no work anymore. Foreign investment capital has dried up. There is a glut of commercial real estate that is unoccupied, the result of a building frenzy that has created at least a 14-year surplus of office space in Beijing. They can't give it away anymore, but like the Japanese, they are extremely reluctant to write down the debt, because that is an admission of defeat, and means a tremendous loss of face, which in turn means heads will roll. And there is a real estate bubble that is in the early stages of implosion, so unlike March 2000, there is nowhere to hide for China.

So I think this index will lose more than half its current value, and is a high probability short. It could well rally further a bit, but long-term, this index is headed down IMHO.

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