Max pain point for QQQQ is currently $33.00:
optionpain.com
Also, short interest in QQQQ is rather low, at 118,000,000 shares. The time to cover there is less than a day.
In contrast, the short interest on Feb 27 and March 13 was 154 million and 188 million shares, respectively. So traders have gotten rather bullish, but there have been months when short interest dropped below 100 million.
The relationship between short interest and market inflections is not really very good, except when things get extreme. So I don't read that much into this. But still, the short interest is not of a magnitude that would contribute much to a rally from shorts covering (and hence, buying shares).
Looking at the futures, oil seems to be stalling, and is currently trading down about a percent. The dollar is currently trading down some, so that no doubt is contributing. But oil futures can move quite a bit very quickly. Index futures are down. Asian markets are mostly up.
I don't know exactly when this market will pull back, but there are warning signs everywhere that this is imminent, and could well begin tomorrow. I expect that by week's end I will be short and in cash with no long positions except the treasury yield.
WS |
