ST trading:
It looks like the 5/30 lows was a successful test of the bottom of the new trading range, for AMAT and NVLS. For AMAT, swing trading would be: go long at 50, short at 58. For NVLS, long at 48, short at 56.
The productivity numbers are indicating that the 1995-2000 increase in productivity was cyclical, not structural. If this is true, then we should see a pattern of bad productivity numbers, and steadily rising inflation. Greenspan usually signals what he's going to do, before he does it (if it's bad news). When he starts talking about being worried about inflation, it'll be an indication this bear rally is about over.
At the moment, I am 70% long stocks (all non-tech), 25% cash, and 5% put Leaps (in TXN). On a rally to the top of recent trading ranges, I'll add put Leaps. Beginning on 6/17, my long positions will begin to be in LT cap-gains territory, and I'll begin selling them in increments. In the current economic environment, 70% stocks (long, that is) is too much. |
