Chris,
You are absolutely correct and succinctly described the concept of "investing".
Buying a company based on its fundamentals. The past and present performance are "real" indicators of what the company did and is doing, from this we can draw conclusions based on economic inputs, to
try to determine what the company may do in the future (i.e. low unemployment, growing economy, more teenage girls, bigger allowances, the Christmas season, cheaper goods from Asia). When we perceive that the future performance of the company will be good enough to satisfy our criteria for an investment, then we invest.
Charts are useful in giving a graphical representation of a companies past performance that is easily and quickly understood. Attempting to discover and analyze patterns in the chart is largely self deluding and of little interest to the long term investor. Because a head and shoulders, or cup and handle pattern performed one way in the past is, to borrow the well known mutual fund disclaimer, no guarantee that it will do so in the future.
It has, however, been pretty well demonstrated that "good" companies,
those that exhibit the fundamental qualities of long term growth, low debt, good financial management, good marketing, and a plan for the future, will succeed (see Coca Cola, Gillette, and just about any other company in Warren Buffett's portfolio).
In either case, only two things can happen, you can either be right or wrong, and I feel much more comfortable in making my decision based on realities. The present price represents a wonderful buying opportunity which I excercised last Friday at the market opening by buying some more of this undervalued gem @$18 5/8.
Good investing, Henry |
