Shorted oil today also. This one is less clear and the technical picture is less well developed, but the indexes will tend to pull down oil.
Also, oil has come too far too fast (up over 65% in less than 5 months).
There's a fairly strong region of support building here that spans the $51.31 to $53.31 region. Oil will probably test that area about the same time QQQQ is testing its own support region. The two outcomes will be linked IMHO. If QQQQ breaks down through support, oil will also.
However, the dollar will affect oil, but have little or no influence on QQQQ. If the dollar rallies, that will put strong downward pressure on oil, since oil is denominated in dollars.
Currently the dollar shows early technical buy signals from extreme oversold levels after a multi-month period of pullback and consolidation. I think the dollar will rally here. The last 3 times the stochastics have gotten this oversold, the dollar has rallied impressively (see third chart). I think it will do so again. Currently, the dollar is continuing to rally in the overseas FOREX market, and I will probably go long the dollar tomorrow.
My reasoning there is that even if QQQQ decides to reverse and rally, if the dollar rallies also, that will push oil down despite what the stock markets do. So, it is a bit of a hedge I suppose, and also spreads the bets a little.
OIL:
U.S. DOLLAR:
U.S. DOLLAR:
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