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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: The Insider who wrote (4776)11/9/1996 7:38:00 PM
From: E_K_S   of 42771
 
As the Insider, I would of thought you would have speculated on the options rather than the stock. A true insider and investor would understand the value in the company and would look to the long term potential vs this short term blip. You probably have noticed the huge preminum in the option prices.....just think.....where is the smart money trading?

Per your statement...."Although my gut feeling is that nobody in his right mind would pay anything for this company. And the entire move up was just a fake." But in reality, 13 million shares of trades with several 100K blocks to me indicate more than just a 'fake'. I am also confused by the activity but as a trader and market observer you have to watch many of the other more salient indicators. Eventually, the market will explain the move.

Hint: Watch the open interst on calls and puts over the next three trading days. Remember earnings are to be reported the first week in December. Also, Novell's assets remain solid (and growing) and the free flow cash flow is still positive.

Finally, as you well know, Market Psychology also plays a huge role as future expectations (ie. buy-out vs lousy earnings, new product announcement etc.) are affected by 'Uncertainty', 'Greed', & of course 'Fear'. Therefore, the stock will show quite a bit of volatility.

By the way, I am still trying to figure this three hour move put as well. My gut tells me that it is in deed more than 'just a fake'.

Good Luck with your Investment.

EKS
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