Pravin: With SiS and nVidia producing their integrated chipsets in volume this quarter, there should be a surge in demand for AMD processors. I am confident that AMD will ship over 8 million processors this quarter and exit the quarter with lower inventory than last.
With arrival slated for Aug. 10 (nForce, anyway), half the quarter is already lost. Worse, back-to-school buying is missed completely.
I don't see how nForce will will spur much in the way of sales… at least this Q. OEMs are bound to be careful and only introduce it in low volumes at first. If all goes well, I have no doubt the ramp will be quite quick (and TSMC isn't exactly capacity constrained these days, so that should be no problem), but that would seem to be a Q4 effect more than a Q3 effect.
AMD sales and ASPs this quarter rest on AthlonMP and Athlon4. With the mobile market being some 25% of the total market in units (this may be an old - or even incorrect - number… if good, current statistics are available, I'd love to hear about it!) and AMD's stated goal of 50% by year-end, 30% in Q3 would not seem unreasonable.
What ASP these mobile sales will command depends on several issues, however (apart from general PC sales recovery, which may well be the greatest factor): Intel's Tualatin ramp (and associated new mobile chipset) and decent mobile chipsets for Athlon4. Right now, I would wager that the ALi and VIA chipsets used in Athlon4 notebooks more than "make up for" any savings in power provided by PowerNow! over SpeedStep. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if that "hot spot" Paul is fond of mentioning on some HP Athlon4 notebook is actually the NB…
Wonder what these guys are smoking:
nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com.
uhmm.. that's a rather odd date for an article that speculates on Q2 shipments and ends up pegging it at 5.5M - well below AMD's official numbers:
As a result, AMD was only able to sell 5.5 million sets of processors, equivalent to only 78 percent of its quarterly target, in the second quarter.
-fyo |
