ST trading:
Bought a lot of NVLS puts (2002 55s) at 3:29 today, when my limit order to buy at 11.2 cleared. For NVLS, the ST range is 48-56. For AMAT, the ST range is: buy at 50, sell at 57.
For the first time since the early April bottom in the Nasdaq, investors seem to be paying attention to bad news. I hear more talk and news about earnings (or, rather, the lack of earnings), than about the Fed. And the Fed seems to be about done lowering rates. Maybe another 1/4% next meeting, and that's it. Chip inventories are slowly getting cleared (PC more than telecom), but chip demand is not picking up, and chip capacity is more than adequate for demand at current levels. The market is currently betting on a sharp rebound in chip demand, and a resumption in capacity orders for semi-equip, by late 2001. That is already in the stocks now, and it is the rosiest of possible scenarios for the medium-term future. |
