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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.40+1.0%Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (4789)8/8/2002 8:39:11 PM
From: Return to Sender   of 95530
 
6:22PM Teradyne to close printing facility, lay off employees (TER) 14.49 +0.25: Co. closing San Diego printed circuit board facility and laying off 125 people by year end (total number of employees about 8400). President of Systems Division, Richard Schneider, does not see significant recovery in 2H02.

5:49PM Thursday After Hours price changes vs 4pm ET levels: A subdued tone in the after hours trade with little news of note... On the earnings front, storage device company, Emulex (ELX 20.81 -2.80), posted an in-line fiscal Q4 pro forma profit of $0.16 per share. Its stock is under pressure, however, following the guidance the company provided on its conference call. For Q1 (Sep), ELX expects revenue between $68-73 mln (Multex consensus $74.7 mln) and EPS of $0.16 (consensus $0.16); for FY03, ELX is projecting revenues of $305-325 mln (consensus $338 mln) and EPS of $0.70-0.75 (consensus $0.70); related stocks include QLGC, BRCD, VRTS and MCDT...

4:57PM Storage sector trades lower on Emulex report : QLGC -2.25 vs the 4 pm ET close after ELX warns on revenue for FY03. Other names on the defensive include: BRCD -0.97, VRTS -0.50, MCDT -0.38

4:47PM Emulex guides revenue lower (ELX) 23.61 +1.26: -- Update -- On its conference call, company says it now expects Q1 (Sep) revenue and EPS of $68-73 mln and $0.16 vs Multex consensus of $74.7 mln and $0.16.. company also guiding fiscal 2003 (Jun 03) revenue lower to $305-$325 mln vs Multex consensus of $338 mln....However, company guides EPS higher to $0.70-$0.75 vs consensus of $0.70.... stock falling on guidance, now at 21.45.

4:08PM Merix issues guidance (MERX) 7.98 +0.69: Co says that volume orders in the communications and high-end computing mkt segments are exceeding expectations; co now expects Q1 loss of $0.21-$0.23 on $23.5-$24.5 mln in revs (consensus is a loss of $0.25 and $22.6 mln in revs). Co announced it was raising guidance yesterday.

4:02PM Emulex posts in line results (ELX) 23.61 +1.26: -- Update -- Posts Q4 pro forma net of $0.16, in line with the Multex consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.11. Revs rose to $70.2 mln (consensus $70.14 mln), up 20% yr/yr and 1% sequentially.

1:54PM Chart Watch : Not surprisingly there has been a steady stream of conversation of late concerning the possibility that the market averages have finally found a bottom. The performance of the Dow and the S&P 500 has been constructive in that they pushed aggressively off of their July lows and then held near their respective 62% retracements during the subsequent pullback before working higher once again. While encouraging from at least a short term perspective, the turnaround has not been as favorable for the Nasdaq indices. The Composite index established a new closing low in August while the larger cap Nasdaq 100 pushed to a fresh low. The media has asked virtually every guest if this is the bottom. Most have stated that it is a process but that yes, it most likely is the bottom. Can't argue with these experts but have always wanted the market to show me some proof even if not from Missouri. What will need to see is more impressive leadership (see Stock Brief for best positioned sectors thus far) and a significant increase in volume if the indices retest and breach resistances.

Thought we could trot out a chart of the Nasdaq Composite to show what this index has accomplished thus far. While not as well formed as the Dow and S&P 500, the index is testing/approaching a key area. Note from the chart how many times that the index failed to sustain a breach of its 20 day ema (blue line at 1307 today) since the downtrend accelerated in May (red x). The upper boundary (2 std dev) of the regression line of the May/Aug decline also comes into play near this area. Sustained action above amid rising volume would indeed be an encouraging first step for the bottoming scenario. On an intermediate term basis will focus on the 50 day sma (1410) which the index has failed to hold above for more than 2 days since late Jan. -- Jim Schroeder, Briefing.com

2:55PM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- Index pushed through 1300 and flirts with its 20 day ema (see 10:32 comment and Story Stock) which is currently at 1308. Next resistances are at 1315 and 1320/1325 with the recovery high off the July low not coming into play until 1354. Posture above supports at 1300 and 1290 leave it well positioned on a very short term basis.

12:24PM Intel back for another test (INTC) 17.73 +0.01: -- Update -- -- Technical -- Late yesterday and on several occasions today the issue has attempted to work through 17.86 and failed. Intraday, continued posture above 17.60/17.52 suggests potential for another test. A penetration exposes a more important resistance at 18.05/18.15 (20 day ema, yesterday's high). The top of the July trading range comes into play in the 19/20 area.

12:19PM Adaptec (ADPT) 5.62 +0.04: In pre-open note, Needham & Co initiated with Buy rating and price target of $8. With tangible book value of $5 per share, positive cash flow and modest profitability likely in near-term, firm believes downside risk on shares is minimal and already includes a delay in iSCSI introduction. Catalysts include evidence of improving IT spending environment or announcements regarding current or additional OEM relationships. In addition to general risks related to economic weakness and softness in IT spending, specific risks are timing and adoption rate of iSCSI and growth within ADPT's core business.

11:26AM KLA-Tencor reaffirms guidance (KLAC) 36.58 -0.32: We are hearing that KLAC at the Piper Jaffray conference is reaffirming their Q1 guidance given on July 30 for EPS of $0.25-$0.26 on revs of $370-380 mln (consensus is $0.24 and $378.5 mln).

9:15AM RF Micro, Skyworks initiated with Neutral ratings at Soundview : Soundview initiates coverage with a NEUTRAL rating and $7 price target; believes that RFMD faces near-term challenges due to NOK's TDMA share losses as well as continued pricing pressure; although firm expects RFMD's 2003 revs to grow faster than the mkt, 2003 EPS ests are below consensus and valuation of 50x 2003 est is at the upper end of the semi space and ahead of peers. In addition, firm initiates SWKS with a NEUTRAL rating and $5 price target, saying SWKS is their favorite stock in the wireless semi space but concerns regarding cash raising requirements are likely to remain a short-term overhang on the stock.

7:41AM ESS Tech to repurchase up to 5 mln shares (ESST) 10.68: Co says it has already repurchased 2.4 mln shares under its 3 mln share authorization announced May 7. "We believe our stock is very undervalued and provides an attractive opportunity to reduce the outstanding shares and enhance shareholder value."

7:03AM Intel will not expense stock options-- WSJ (INTC) 17.74:

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