I think your scenario is very realistic, and the examples you mentioned are good ones to support your point. GS was a block seller on Friday, but I don't have a handle on whether they were simply lightening their position, or if they were running the system as you mentioned.
I really think they are almost as in the dark on any potential merger as we are, and they have the same uncertainty, only the burden of a LOT more shares. If I was GS, I would be holding steady because the company IS worth more than the current stock price, and any potential merger might provide the necessary means to elevate the price closer to recent levels. One thing is for certain, CIEN is a VERY LONG way away from establishing any new 52 week highs, with $40 being the ceiling for quite some time to come.
I would feel comfortable buying CIEN even at this price, if I was planning on holding it for a year. Their technology is just too good to go unnoticed; either they will eventually win some contracts, or they will get bought out so someone can capitalize on this fact.
Regards, JB |
