"The Outcast
April 1, 2012: Under pressure from Iran to support the Syrian dictatorship, and from the Arab world to support the Syrian rebels, Iraq is trying to remain neutral. That means no official support for the rebels, but ignoring efforts by Iraqi Sunnis (who dominate along the Syrian border) to support the Sunni majority in Syria. This may score Iraq some points if the Syrian rebels win. Most Iraqis don't care if the pro-Iran dictatorship in Syria is overthrown. After all, that dictatorship is run by the hated Baath Party. The Syrian and Iraqi Baath Parties used to be united, but split in the 1960s over a leadership dispute. Both branches went on to establish brutal dictatorships. The Iraqi Baath Party was crushed (but not completely eliminated) in 2003. What worries Shia Iraqis (over 60 percent of the population) is that democracy in Syria means the Sunni majority will rule, and that Sunni government might conspire with other Sunni governments in the region to support terrorism by the Iraqi Sunni minority in order to put the Iraqi Sunni minority in control of Iraq once more. This would be a dictatorship, but Sunnis in the region believe that century's old Sunni rule of Baghdad and the surrounding areas (modern Iraq) is the best way to contain Iran. The current Shia dominated Iraqi government is having a hard time convincing its Sunni neighbors that the Iraqi government is run by Arabs who do not want to see non-Arab Iran expanding. But the religious feud between Iran (run by a council of senior Shia clergy) and Saudi Arabia (run by a Sunni family that supports Sunni control of Islam's most holy places) is trying to force Iraq to land firmly on one side or another.
At the same time, the government looks the other way while massive smuggling goes on to Iran, which helps Iran get around the growing number of economic sanctions. But this smuggling still leaves the sanctions about 90 percent effective.
Al Qaeda and other Sunni Islamic terror groups have turned into criminal gangs. Outside support, at least in terms of cash and weapons, has pretty much disappeared. So the terrorists use extortion, robbery and kidnapping to make the payroll and buy supplies (weapons, bomb equipment) and influence (bribes). The judicial and prison systems are corrupt, and with enough cash they can get their captured brethren freed. While some of the al Qaeda men have left Islamic radicalism behind and gone on to be all-gangster, all the time, many still fight on for a Sunni ruled Iraq. That is not likely to happen, so the security forces continue to hunt down and, preferably, kill all the Islamic terrorists they can find. Young, unemployed, Sunni Arab men note this and either find a job, or take to the criminal life. Islamic radicalism is seen as a dead-end choice and decidedly unpopular."
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