Elmat ; reading your post I did a bit of searching out possible effects on future investments. The world seems to be dedicated to weaning it's self off fossil fuels. Oil in particular. There are two alternatives. Electricity and Hydrogen.
Given that Hydrogen is by far the cleanest source as when employed the exhausted material is water "0" pollution. The technology is already in existence, but both expensive and explosive. There for I believe it will be yet some distance down the road.
Nearer term the world is moving as we all know to electric vehicles where possible. Especially in metropolises and on major highways where recharging stations are more easily located. and where the vast majority of vehicles are located plus commuting to work, schools and recreation facilities are the norm of life. Delivery and Garbage trucks are now being replaced with Electric rather than combustion engines.
With that in mind. Research reveals there are 287.3 million registered vehicles in the USA alone. Figures show 17.6 million new vehicle purchases as of 2019. Of course they were not all electric or Hybrid. Many were still Fossil fuel powered. But the fuel powered segment volume is steadily falling.
Some manufacturers have curtailed or planning total curtailment of light vehicles with solely combustion engines . Honda, GM, Jaguar/ Land Rover,
Last year, the Dutch parliament voted through a motion to end all gas and diesel car sales by 2025 (it still has to go through the Dutch senate).In June, India announced that it would end sales of gas and diesel cars by 2030.In June, Norway agreed to end sales of gas and diesel cars by 2025. (Norway leads the world in EVs — almost 40 percent of its newly registered vehicles were hybrid, electric, or hydrogen in 2017.)In July, France announced it would end sales of gas and diesel cars by 2040.In July, Britain announced it would end sales of gas and diesel cars by 2040.Scotland will end sales by 2032
Last year, Volkswagen announced that it would attempt to bring 30 or more BEVs to market by 2025, with a target of 2 million to 3 million sold by that year, roughly 25 percent of its total sales. This year, the company upped the ante again, vowing to create electric versions of all 300 of its models. (After its diesel scandal debacle, Volkswagen is all in on electrics.)In March, Daimler (owner of Mercedes-Benz) announced it was accelerating its EV program and would have 10 new EVs to market by 2022.In July, Volvo announced that all its models introduced in 2019 and after would be hybrid or electric. While high-speed trains use up to 10 tonnes of copper per kilometer of track. A single commercial airliner uses up to 190 Km of copper wiring.
Electric and Hybrid vehicles use lots of Copper
Conventional cars 18-49 lbs of copper
Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) 85 lbs
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) use 132 lbs
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) contain 183 lbs
A hybrid electric bus contains 196 lbs
A Battery electric bus contains 814 lbs
Mining operations are now purchasing electric haul trucks. As well as electric powered cranes and other machines.
300 copper mine deposits around the world are said will be mined out over the next 20 years. So just to keep up to current demand it would take opening around 14 major mines each and every year. Few are yet planned let alone permitted or under construction. From start of construction to production on average takes 3 to 5 years. Only five are regarded as new supply . 4 in South America and one in the DRC. Some S American projects have foreseeable water problems which may hamper future production, while the DRC is not a politically preferred jurisdiction for many mining companies.
Warehoused available supply late 2019 LME reported 189,525 tons. This would be consumed in short time with any increase in demand form China's manufacturing after the virus expires.
Considering the circumstances Combined with the projection that copper demand is forecast to increase well above current oncoming supply. It is my opinion there may well be investment opportunity in smaller already operating producers. Both in either growth or as take out targets by the Majors in order to replace dwindling resources or supplement their current output for the likely coming shortage.
Also adding to the demand will be Wind and Solar and other technology + + + aspects which also need copper . Copper companies at present are tremendously down and undervalued as a natural swing of the pendulum. That has now been further compounded by the virus fear.
I'm seeking, Well ran companies, Still financially secure, 15 to 30 year projects, that are dedicated to methodically advancing their agenda for the coming rally are the targets.
Cheers
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