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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (48049)	5/19/2012 7:51:53 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) of 78691

Paul - Suncor Energy Inc. Common Stoc (NYSE: SU) Penn West Petroleum Ltd (NYSE: PWE) Enerplus Corporation Common Sto (NYSE: ERF) goo.gl I also am considering SU. Now that PWE and ERF are at or near long term lows, do these begin to rank higher on your list? PWE and ERF have exposure in both Canada and the US while SU is strictly Canadian Oil Sands (w/ very long term proven reserves - a big plus). I do like to have diversification into other geographical areas, especially Australia with their NG resources (large potential exports to Japan & China). However, many of these countries are looking at or have implemented a "resource" tax. Australia is one of these countries. Do you know if Canada has considered such a tax. This last week, it seemed like several of the Canadian natural resource companies sold off more than the others. I wonder if the market might be pricing in some other costs (like a resource tax). The only other thing I can think of is their NG and/or Oil may be discounted as (1) it is somewhat land locked until new pipeline(s) are built and (2) Canadian NG is worth less because of the over supply in the U.S.. I still have CNX (New 52wk low) and CLF (very near 52wk low) on my buy/watch list. CNX is 50% NG and 50% coal and CLF is 80% iron ore and 20% coal. CLF w/ interests in Australia may also have to deal with their new "resource tax". So far w/i the last 10 days, I have added to both ERF and PWE. I have owned these for years and have lowered my average cost substantially. Both positions are underwater as of last week. There has been some discussion Oil prices could drop substantially further (maybe into the $70.00/barrel-$50/barrel) area. My strategy is to continue to add shares to my current oil/ng holdings as oil prices fall. I can always sell my higher priced shares on any price rise so for me, another drop lower is a gifted buying opportunity. My future buy strategy is going to be more based on price than any other factor. I will be watching the price of Oil and the new 52wk lows hit in the companies in my basket. The difficult part is going to be just when to pull the trigger as Oil cracks through each $10.00 barrier. EKS

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