Good question. During "normal" market cycles, yes, the transports are considered "early cyclicals" and rise in expectation of better economic times ahead. They're also quite sensitive to expectations of a change in fuel prices.
I don't follow airlines at all, I look at trucks and rails.
While we're here, the price of coal (Wyoming basin) has tripled year-to-date. That's right, tripled. So California's plan to buy "cheap" electricity from those old, dirty, coal-fired plants in the Midwest isn't going to work.
Anyhoo, yeah, the transport index actually broke out Friday (it's at about 2,900, and the all-time high is, I think, 3,150).
I hope I'm not too long-winded, but yes, the transports actually are leading the market here, and my gosh, when was the last time that happened? I don't know, but I see it as a positive when looking out to late this year and on into 2002.
PB |
