OT-Storage: Gottfried, Hope you have avoided the telecom disaster so far. That might be a good plan, go to storage now and switch into telecom later. Perhaps I have been programmed wrong, I ignored the "dead money" warning I got on AMAT in 96 and it paid off, so I was applying that same logic to telecom recently. It has been very painful.
Do you worry about valuations much? I made some money on BRCD, but sold out to buy others since the valuation seems high. Now that I sold it, it is moving up again. I find the whole valuation issue very confusing. Many stocks that seem expensive seem to be safe, and they seem to just go up (e.g. MSFT).
I am still sweating this fiber optic thing. Still can't figure it out. Basically I am still suspicous that the pros/media have it all wrong again. There are some contrary opinions out there (positive), but the consensus seems to be that if you own fiber optic stocks you made a real bad move, and should probably get out now before loosing more. Instead I have been adding.
An article that is slighly positive on fiber optics is posted below.
Selection From Article:`
`I believe we'll find marketplace fears about
bandwidth glut are unfounded. There is strong and continued growth in the Internet and data
traffic market and recent studies by industry analysts cite Internet growth rates approaching
100 percent per year.''
John
Williams Communications CEO Refutes Bandwidth
Glut and Offers Vision of Future Telecom Landscape
NEW YORK, June 19 /PRNewswire/ -- Howard Janzen, Chairman and CEO of Williams
Communications (NYSE: WCG - news), today refuted a number of telecom industry myths,
including recent bandwidth glut reports that failed to recognize differences between lit and
dark fiber, during a keynote speech at The Goldman Sachs Emerging Telco and Internet
Infrastructure Conference. Janzen also offered his perspective on telecom's direction, noting
the emergence of a few survivors and increased opportunities for companies with focused,
consistent strategies.
``It's simply not accurate to add up dark fiber in the ground and then say there is too much
capacity,'' noted Janzen. ``Dark fiber in the ground does not equal usable broadband
capacity. When we built our 33,000 mile next- generation network we strategically added
more fiber than we needed immediately to prepare for the inevitable future growth in
demand.'' Janzen added, ``It takes a great deal of time and capital to 'light' dark fiber. With a
fully lit and operational network, Williams Communications provides end-to- end network
services today, and is well positioned to turn up additional capacity as more applications
drive traffic onto the network.''
According to industry analysts who cover the sector, broadband applications such as
wireless web, video-on-demand and eCinema will spur demand in the near future, while
demand for traditional telecom services continues to grow.
``You won't find many industries that can match the growth we're seeing as new broadband
applications drive demand,'' noted Janzen. ``I believe we'll find marketplace fears about
bandwidth glut are unfounded. There is strong and continued growth in the Internet and data
traffic market and recent studies by industry analysts cite Internet growth rates approaching
100 percent per year.''
During his keynote, Janzen also discussed the changing telecom landscape and
acknowledged that the market shakeout will continue. According to Janzen, the market will
see continued vaporization of weaker players. However, as demand continues to accelerate and local access bottlenecks
continue to be eliminated, companies such as Williams Communications, with compelling value propositions that address the
changing marketplace, will thrive.
Janzen noted that Williams Communications, with a stable customer base which includes high quality bandwidth-centric
companies and a next-generation network completed last December has a significant advantage in surviving the telecom
shake-out.
``It is ironic that the market meltdown has actually created a bigger opportunity for us,'' Janzen said. ``Even the largest players
in telecom don't want to spend capital in this environment, and yet they need network capacity to meet the surging growth in
voice, data, and Internet traffic. We are perfectly positioned to meet that need by providing a network outsourcing solution
today, and with funding that carries us into 2003 when we expect to be free cash flow positive.''
About Williams Communications Group, Inc.
Based in Tulsa, Okla., Williams Communications Group, Inc., is the leading broadband network services provider focused on
the needs of bandwidth-centric customers. Williams Communications operates the largest, most efficient, next-generation
network in North America, spanning more than 33,000 lit and 40,000 planned route miles. Connecting 125 U.S. cities and
reaching five continents, Williams Communications provides customers with unparalleled local-to-global connectivity. By
leveraging its infrastructure, best-in-breed technology, connectivity and network and broadband media expertise, Williams
Communications supports the bandwidth demands of leading communications companies around the globe. For more
information, visit www.williamscommunications.com.
All trademarks are the property of their owner. Portions of this document may constitute ``forward-looking statements'' as
defined by federal law. Although the company believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no
assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. Any such statements are made in reliance on the ``safe harbor''
protections provided under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Additional information about issues that could
lead to material changes in performance is contained in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. |
