TPX - Looking backwards at earnings, it's very undervalued at $22. Looking back at Q1 FCF, it's less undervalued, but still. The problem is that we don't know what's going to happen looking forwards. If there's a full fledged price war, everyone can suffer. If TPX falls behind in customer tastes, it could also suffer a lot.
Now, I think that there is (imaginary (c) Matt Monday ;)) moat for TPX, since it's well known brand. I just don't know if that moat is big and sustainable.
What is your experience with a momo stock that dropped out of the sky like this? Any experience with this? Depends. With CROX it was a disaster to jump in early - I bought at $40 then down to $20, sold on a bounce at $2X and the remainder in $1X :( . With HLYS even more disaster. Same with KKD. Same with RIMM, NOK. All of these are in different areas, so it's a bit tough comparison. I don't seem to remember any success stories of jumping in early. But perhaps someone else might chime in... :)
It is more than 50% down, so perhaps this time it's different and it will soar back pretty fast? |
