I am not trashing anything Faris, but stating facts as they are present by years in this business and SEC filings. I've repeatedly say nothing is proved until they spud that well and 'turn it to the right'; drill the well. I've repeatedly say that the estimates could be far less or far more. If you think for one moment that this field will be developed with the drilling with just a couple of wells, think again. That 23 mi potential field could have a number of wells on it to adequately produce it.
All of that takes vast sums of money. Look at Tengiz, which by the way has a number of wells drilled, is going to cost upwards to $40 billion to develope. That going to be about $5.60/barrel which is a little on the high side. It is a field, because they drilled on it has better analysis and better define reserves than a lease that has nothing more than prelim siesmic and one well never completed becasue of high pressure gas blowout.
This stock could in fact be the next Triton, pattern after their huge discovery in Colombia. Yet that stock didn't move until they drill 15,000 well, extensive testing done and the facts known, such as it had 1000' oil bearing column in the hole. Facts are facts, not one drop of oil has come out of the ground according to SEC and PR releases, just natgas and condensate. No publish information has stated if the gas is sour or what it's quality is. If this is a sour gas area, that is problematic. K-Stan has a history of Sour gas. I've repeatedly said that condensate is the best of all worlds, but the fact is there is no definitive resivior analyst other than based on siesmic intereptation. How many core samples have been collect to date from this lease? There is nothing to indicate that has been done. Where in all of the PR or SEC do they tell you the thickness of the producing bearing zones? Is it 10', 100' or 1000'? I have asked on occassion what is the depth of these wells or the depth of these fields? Don't you think that would be important to know? It's pure spectulation at this point. I'm not rushing to give this company any money until I have better information than what is available to date. What you do with your money is your problem, but unless you can show me more facts and not wild speculation and dreams of riches, then I'm sorry, I'll continue to state my cautionary stand on this stock. Frankly their recent PR releases are pretty much the same thing that was said in May 15 SEC 10-Q with only two variables that are different: the estimates were raised by 500,000 million and they have transferred the license.
One final thought that no one has asked; why would someone sell such a great deal for such a cheap price? I've been on projects that the initial lease, before any siesmic was done, for $40 mil. If this field has all this oil, why did MED just give it away? As to Exxon stock, it's perfromance has nothing to do with K-Stan. They are global and participate in ongoing production from places like the North Slope, Saudi (yes the Suadi government and the seven sisters are involved), Yemen, Inodnesia and other producing area's. Tengiz is Chevron and that stock hasn't perform like Texaco, Mobil, Royal Dutch to date.....hmmm shoots that proffer theory doesn't it. Right now the Deep water Gulf is a hot play with nice returns. |
