Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (4832)	10/1/2006 5:18:43 AM
From: Wharf Rat	of 24212

Should have posted this a long time ago. The Olduvai Theory The Social Contract (Winter 2005) by Richard Duncan {There are charts connected with this essay that could not be placed in this font. Please pull up the pdf of the article to view the charts.] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABSTRACT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Olduvai Theory states that the life expectancy of industrial civilization is approximately 100 years circa 1930-2030. Energy production per capita (e) defines it. The exponential growth of world energy production ended in 1970 (Postulate 1 is verified). Average e will show no growth from 1979 through circa 2008 (Postulate 2 is confirmed from 1979 through 2003). The rate of change of e will go steeply negative circa 2008 (Postulate 3). World population will decline to about two billion circa 2050 (Postulate 4). A growing number of independent studies concur (see text). [Key Words Olduvai Theory; Henry Adams; energy and population; exponential growth; permanent blackouts; overshoot and collapse.] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Whence the Name ?Olduvai?? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Olduvai Gorge is an archaeological site in the eastern Serengeti Plains in northern Tanzania. The gorge is a very steep-sided ravine roughly 30 miles long and 295 ft. deep. Exposed deposits show rich fossil fauna, many hominid remains and items belonging to one of the oldest stone tool technologies, called Olduwan. The objects recovered date from 2,100,000 to 15,000 years ago. The name of this premier site for studying the Stone Age has been taken to label the theory that industrial civilization will soon collapse and send humankind into precipitous decline. Olduvai Gorge is best known as the site where, in 1959, the discoveries of Mary and Louis Leakey changed paleontology to focus on Africa, rather than Asia, as the region of human origins. The Oxford Dictionary of Scientists (Oxford University Press, 1999) states ?Leakey?s work has not only provided evidence for the greater age of humans but suggests that Africa, and not as was previously thought, Asia, may have been the original center of human evolution.? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INTRODUCTION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Olduvai Theory states that the life expectancy of industrial civilization is approximately 100 years circa 1930-2030. It is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population (e). Four postulates follow 1. The exponential growth of world energy production ended in 1970. 2. Average e will show no growth from 1979 to circa 2008. 3. The rate of change of e will go steeply negative circa 2008. 4. World population will decline proximate with e. thesocialcontract.com

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next