Ghost of Housing Bubbles Past:
(long but fascinating; posted by "Desi Dude" on housingbuble2 comments section.)
I would say that we are here: >>State's Home Sales Drop 14% Median Price Tops
$200,000 for First Time
Crouch, Gregory; Los Angeles Times; May 25, 1989;
pg. IV1<<
Sales volume falling but prices still rising. If history repeats, prices should start falling off the cliff within a few months.
Of Bubbles Past: A Chronological Listing of News
Headlines from the Last Housing Bubble
There's been some confusion on the blogs about just
what went on during the last housing bust in Southern
California. I was there then; I lived through it, I
owned property, and I can tell you it was no fun at
all. Then, like here, like now, people were saying
things like "housing has never gone down here before
(so it won't ever go down)", "housing always goes up",
"houses aren't like stocks", "we're special", etc.,
etc., etc.
Below you will find a chronological listing of
selected Los Angeles Times articles originally
published between the years of 1985 and 1997
(inclusive) culled from their archives. The similarity
among headlines from then and now is quite
informative. But of course, the housing bubble of
today is far, far more extreme than it was then.
1985-1986: Housing is booming, inventory is low.
Housing Starts Surge 14.9% During January, Best
Gain in 20 Months
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Feb 20,
1985; pg. 1
Inventory of Housing Dips in Southland Unsold New
Homes Declined by 3.2% from End of l984
DAVID M. KINCHEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Mar 16, 1986; pg. 1
Housing Sales Boom Keeps Inventories Slim
DICK TURPIN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Aug 24, 1986; pg. 1
1987: Housing still booming, prices increasing,
inventories low.
High-End Home Sales Push Up Median Price
Dick Turpin; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Mar 15, 1987; pg. 1
Inventory of Unsold Homes Sets New Low
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Mar 15,
1987; pg. 1
Fewer Homes, High Prices as Mortgage Rates Climb
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Sep 10, 1987; pg. 1
Fixed-Mortgage Interest Rates Surge Woes Mount for
Home Buyers, Brokers
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Sep 10, 1987; pg. 1
Unsold Homes Inventory Drops for Third Time
DAVID M. KINCHEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Sep 13, 1987; pg.1
1988: People start to question the boom. Realtors
assure us the boom will continue. Houses aren't like
stocks afterall.
'88 Outlook Bright for U. S. Real Estate
Dick Turpin; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jan 10, 1988; pg. 1
County's Median Resale Price of Homes Reaches
$179,999, Costliest in California
JOHN O'DELL; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Mar 23, 1988; pg. 5
Unlike Stocks, Home Prices Rarely Collapse
JAMES FLANIGAN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Aug 28, 1988; pg. 1
Southland Inventory of Unsold New Homes Lowest in
Decade
DAVID M. KINCHEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Sep 11, 1988; pg. 10
J. M. Peters Reports Skyrocketing Sales for Second
Quarter
MICHAEL FLAGG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Sep 14, 1988; pg. 5
Limit Issue Driving Up Home Prices
Dick Turpin; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Sep 18, 1988; pg. 1
Hot Housing Sales Belie Doom Forecast
Ryon, Ruth; Los Angeles Times; Sep 25, 1988; Vol.
107, Iss. 297; 8; pg. 1
1989: Prices are very expensive; affordability an
issue. Sales slow and prices drop. Mention of risky
loan types.
Housing Prices in State Climb 3% in February
Furlong, Tom; Los Angeles Times; Mar 29, 1989;
Vol. 108, Iss. 116; 4; pg. 1
Stock of Unsold Homes Drops Dramatically
DAVID M. KINCHEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Apr 2, 1989; pg. 9
How First-Time Buyers CAn Get Their Piece of the
Dream
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; May 21, 1989;
pg. VIII1
State's Home Sales Drop 14% Median Price Tops
$200,000 for First Time
Crouch, Gregory; Los Angeles Times; May 25, 1989;
pg. IV1
Sales of Existing Homes in State Fall During May
Furlong, Tom; Los Angeles Times; Jun 23, 1989;
Vol. 108, Iss. 202; 4; pg. 1
Orange County Home Sales Drop by 22% in May
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jun 23, 1989; pg. 1
Realtors Tackle New Topic: How to Handle Slow
Housing Market
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Oct 1, 1989;
pg. VIII1
Prices Drop, Sales Slow in State's Housing Market
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Nov 29, 1989; pg. 1
Housing Affordability Rises Outside L.A., Orange
County
Kristof, Kathy M.; Los Angeles Times; Dec 06,
1989; Vol. 109, Iss. 3; D; pg. 1
Survey Cites Four California Banks With Possibly
Risky Realty Loans
JAMES BATES; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Dec 30, 1989; pg. 1
1990: Prices take a serious plunge. One article claims
that housing booms are a bad thing and we should hope
prices stay low. Increasing mortgage rates are blamed
for the bust. The word "recession" is mentioned. Gloom
and doom.
Home Sales in Southland Plunge in '89
Samuels, Alisa; Los Angeles Times; Feb 8, 1990;
pg. D2
The Number of Homes for Sale Sets a Record Real
Estate: San Diego becomes buyer's market, with 4,000
existing homes listed in January.
GREG JOHNSON; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Feb 13, 1990; pg. 2.A
Pray That the Housing Boom Stays Dead
Jones, Robert A; Los Angeles Times; Apr 24, 1990;
pg. A3
Climbing Mortgage Rates Hurt Existing Home Sales
Samuels, Alisa; Los Angeles Times; Apr 26, 1990;
Vol. 109, Iss. 144; D; pg. 3
California Is Nearing the Edge of Recession, UCLA
Forecast Warns
Anderson, Harry; Los Angeles Times; Jun 29, 1990;
Vol. 109, Iss. 208; D; pg. 1
California Real Estate Market Continues to Cool
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jul 26, 1990; pg. 1
Home Sales in July at Slowest Pace in 4 1/2 Years
Furlong, Tom; Los Angeles Times; Aug 28, 1990;
Vol. 109, Iss. 268; D; pg. 2
Realtors Hear Gloomy Price, Sales Forecasts
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Oct 7, 1990;
pg. K1
O.C. Home Resales, Prices Fall Sharply Housing:
Realtors group attributes slump in county and state
figures to fears of recession.
MICHAEL FLAGG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Oct 26, 1990; pg. 5
Housing Slump in California Seen Worsening
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Nov 21, 1990; pg. 1
1991: A "dead cat bounce"? Some folks wondering if the
bust has bottomed out or not. Sales are abysmal (e.g.,
-42%). Other parts of the country showing some signs
of recovery.
Back to Basics
Inman, Bradley; Los Angeles Times; Jan 20, 1991;
pg. K1
Re-Assessing When Home Prices Fall
Boyer, Jeanne; Los Angeles Times; Feb 3, 1991; pg.
K1
California Still Among Lagging Areas, Fed Says
JAMES RISEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); May 2, 1991; pg. 1
Reading Signs--Is Market at Bottom?
Inman, Bradley; Los Angeles Times; Sep 8, 1991;
pg. K1
County's New-Home Sales Plunge 42% for Quarter *
Real estate: New figures indicate the market is
sputtering again after a brief recovery. The inventory
of unsold houses rose by 15%.
GREGORY CROUCH; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Oct 4, 1991; pg. 5
Home Sales Decline in California
Los Angeles Times; Nov 26, 1991; pg. D1
Home Sales Decline in California Housing: The drop
in mortgage rates fails to spur sales in the state,
but sales of existing homes across the country edge up
in October.
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Nov 26,
1991; pg. 1
1992: No one is buying; housing is an investment that
no one will touch. Desperate political efforts being
made to encourage house buying. Rock bottom prices and
lower mortgage rates encourage some purchasing. The
year ends with some buying. Another "dead cat bounce"?
It's not clear.
Move-Up Home Buyers Pretty Much Left Out Real
estate: While Bush's plan may boost first-time
purchases, it does little to dispel caution in the
other key housing sector.
JUBE SHIVER Jr.; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jan 30, 1992; pg. 4
Home Sales in State Fell 6.2% in 1991
Shiver, Jube, Jr.; Los Angeles Times; Feb 12,
1992; D; pg. 1
Spring Thaw Real estate: The local housing market
is showing signs of recovery. More realistic selling
prices and reasonable interest rates have helped to
spur sales.
PATRICIA WARD BIEDERMAN; Los Angeles Times
(pre-1997 Fulltext); Mar 26, 1992; pg. 1
Housing Starts Increase 6.4% to 2-Year High *
Economy: A strong surge in apartment building leads
the way, providing economists with more evidence of a
sustained recovery.
JUBE SHIVER Jr.; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Apr 18, 1992; pg. 1
June Home Sales 3.5% over May but Trail 1991
Figure
Los Angeles Times; Aug 2, 1992; pg. K1
August Housing Starts Rebound 10.4%, U.S. Says
Marshall, Matt; Los Angeles Times; Sep 23, 1992;
D; pg. 1
California Home Sales Surge
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Nov 25, 1992;
pg. D1
Sales of Existing Homes in California Rise Again
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Dec 24, 1992;
pg. D1
1993: It's definitely a buyer's market. Some people
are saddened by the fact that current prices are 50%
of what they were in the 1980's. The housing bust in
Southern California is clearly negatively impacting
the California economy and the national economy at
large. Sellers are desperate to sell (and some people
taking extreme measures like putting huge "for sale"
signs on their lawns for passing planes to see). Folks
who waited out the boom to buy at the bottom are being
handsomely rewarded for their patience. Proof-positive
of the contrarian investing style -- be greedy when
everyone is fearful and fearful when everyone is
greedy. The "slump" may be ending.
Long Southland Housing Slump Finally Ending?
DAVID W. MYERS; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Feb 10, 1993; pg. 1
Housing Market Warming Up After 3-Year Slump Real
estate: Optimism returns to Southland with rising
sales. Number of homes on market is down.
DAVID W. MYERS; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Feb 10, 1993; pg. 1
A sad Westside story: Home prices have declined up
to 50% since late 1980s
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; May 28, 1993;
D; pg. 1
Couple Put Up a Big Sign of the Real Estate Slump
Housing: They write `For Sale' in huge letters on
their lawn, hoping to attract attention from
passengers in planes and jets on flight path to LAX.
DICK WAGNER; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997; Apr 29,
1993; pg. 8
Home Sales in County Climb by 3% Real estate: The
market bucks the downward trend of neighboring areas.
But analysts say don't be too optimistic.
STEPHANIE SIMON; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); May 28, 1993; pg. 1
It's a Buyer's Market as Peninsula Home Prices
Tumble Real estate: Younger families are taking
another look at an area that was once beyond their
economic grasp. This could revitalize the school
district.
TED JOHNSON; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997; Jun 24,
1993; pg. 3
Home Sales Up 6.3% in State, 4.6% Nationwide Real
Estate: Analysts credit low interest rates and say
buyers are beginning to think that prices may have
bottomed out.
DAVID W. MYERS; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jun 26, 1993; pg. 1
California's real estate slump deepens
Miller, Greg; Los Angeles Times; Jul 27, 1993; pg.
D2
Southland home values lead U.S.--Downward
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Aug 4, 1993;
pg. D1
Bottom Line: Housing Market May Be Mending Real
Estate: Despite a three-year slump, experts say prices
are stabilizing, especially for homes under $500,000.
PATRICIA WARD BIEDERMAN; Los Angeles Times
(pre-1997 Fulltext); Aug 22, 1993; pg. 1
Buyers Seek Bargains as Home Prices Keep Sliding
Real estate: La Canada Flintridge emerges as bright
spot with a nearly 21% increase in sales over same
period last year.
ANDREW LePAGE; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Sep 2, 1993; pg. 1
Sitting on the market: After the cash, owners
adjust to the region's housing slump
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Sep 20, 1993;
D; pg. 1
State's bargain hunters boost new-home sales to
3-year high
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Oct 1, 1993;
pg. D1
Home Sales Rise Sharply in State, Nation Real
estate: Size of increase surprises housing analysts.
Median price in California is down 4.3% from 1992
figure.
DAVID W. MYERS; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Oct 26, 1993; pg. 2
Jump in new-home sales spurs hopes of long-awaited
revival
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Nov 3, 1993;
pg. D1
Drop in Southland Home Sales Slows in First 10
Months of '93
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Nov 28,
1993; pg. 4
U.S. home sales hit 14-year high
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Nov 30, 1993;
pg. D1
Slump in O.C. Housing Market May Be Ending Real
estate: November figures show a major year-to-year
increase in the number of units sold. Median price
still sags.
JOHN O'DELL; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Dec 21, 1993; pg. 1
1994: Housing begins its comeback. People who had the
intelligence to wait for the bottom are buying now at
great values. Even rising mortgage rates are not
shaking the recovery.
Bright Spots Some Areas Showing Signs of Recovery
After Four-Year Slump in Home Prices
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jan 16,
1994; pg. 1
Lenders scramble to keep housing comeback alive
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Mar 30, 1994;
D; pg. 1
First-Time Buyers Who Waited Spark Housing Rebound
Real estate: After years of ice-cold sales, the city's
Westside market is finally starting to heat up.
SCOTT SHIBUYA BROWN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jun 5, 1994; pg. 10
Home Sales Up 24% From Last Year
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jun 26,
1994; pg. 6
June Home Sales Best in 5 Years Ventura County Is
Leader
Jack Searles; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jul 26, 1994; pg. 8
Rising mortgage rates shake but don't break state
housing industry
Lee, Patrick; Los Angeles Times; Oct 7, 1994; pg.
D1
1995: Some parts of the Southland are recovering
others are not. People with "negative equity" are in
despair.
Home Sales Rise 10.5% in State, Hit 5-Year High
JAMES F. PELTZ; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Feb 9, 1995; pg. 1
Southland Home Price Rebound Fails to Appear
JESUS SANCHEZ; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); May 22, 1995; pg. 1
County Home Sales Slide 20.4% in May
DAVID R. BAKER; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jun 13, 1995; pg. 1
Home sales surge 19% in May, raising doubts of
rate cut
Mowbray, Rebecca; Los Angeles Times; Jun 30, 1995;
D; pg. 1
Study of Homeowners Finds `Negative Equity' a
Problem Real estate: Nearly 5% owe more than homes are
worth. Impact hinders the state's economy, experts
say.
DEBORA VRANA; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jul 6, 1995; pg. 1
O.C. Real Estate Sales Drop Property: Preliminary
figures for July suggest the county's housing market
is still in a slump.
DEBORA VRANA; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Aug 1, 1995; pg. 1
1996: A tentative recovery is still in the making.
State's housing market finally in turnaround
Sanchez, Jesus; Los Angeles Times; Oct 25, 1996;
pg. D1, 1
O.C. homeowners more confident
Fulmer, Melinda; Los Angeles Times; Dec 3, 1996;
pg. D.2
Ready to fly? Region's housing prices on rise,
moderately
Sanchez, Jesus; Los Angeles Times; Dec 29, 1996;
pg. D.1
1997: Finally, housing has recovered.
Southland Home Sales Are Unseasonably Hot Real
estate: In O.C., October sales were 46.5% higher than
last year. Median price of $208,000 was highest since
1994.
E. SCOTT RECKARD; Los Angeles Times; Nov 14, 1997;
pg. 1
Median Price for O.C. Homes Surges 10.5%
E. SCOTT RECKARD; Los Angeles Times; Dec 10, 1997;
pg. 1
And the rest, as they say, is history.
If you wish to repeat this search, go to the LA Times
website, click on the advanced search tab. The key
words I searched on were "california housing real
estate" between the dates of 01/01/1985 and
12/30/1997. |
