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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Jimbo Cobb who wrote (48461)2/16/1999 7:26:00 PM
From: rupert1   of 97611
 
Just watched the CNN Moneyline with Lou Dobbs program. A big piece on DELL. Concern that it might affect the general market tomorrow. The CNN guy said that if the analysts interpreted it as a macro event signifying trouble in the computer sector then there could be trouble for the sector. But, he said, it was not clear that that is how the analysts would see it.

They then went to McNamee that Californian expert on tech stocks. He said it would probably affect the market tomorrow, but that the smart money would be buying DELL tomorrow and the DELL bottom would probably be tomorrow. He cited the sharpness of the drop caused, as he claimed, not by fundamental news, but by a shortfall between performance and exaggerated expectations. Such a sharp drop for those kind of reasons usually leads to a quick rebound. He said DELL was taking market share in every category it competed. He made no mention of the down trend in its growth rate. However, he did highlight the fact that the bloated float makes it difficult for DELL to produce substantial earnings surprises. The earnings are now spread too thin.

McNammee is well respected and I have no quibbles with him. But my anecdotal experience is that he is always optimistic of all tech stocks and that on the occasions I have listened to him about stocks I owned, his timing has been off - he was optimistic too soon.
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