Bush has a small lead.
"Here are Bush's leads in a number of recent polls, ordered by size of his lead, once the horse race question is weighted by the 2000 exit poll distribution (note: not all recent polls can be included because you need the horse race figures among Democrats, Republicans, and independents separately to do this procedure and not all polls release these figures; in addition, Zogby and Rasmussen results are party-weighted to begin with and therefore do not have to be re-weighted; RV results are used unless only LV results are available):
CBS News, September 6–8 RVs: +5
Zogby, September 8–9 LVs: +2
Rasmussen: September 10–12 LVs: +1
Fox News: September 7–8 LVs: +1
Washington Post, September 6–8 RVs: +1
Newsweek, September 9–10 RVs, –2
Gallup, September 3–5 RVs: –4
These data present a clear picture of a tight race, with Bush likely running a small lead, but not the solid—and even large—advantage that has been conveyed to the public."
americanprogress.org
Thus, the question Gallup should have been asking is: can Kerry overcome his 1-point deficit among RVs by Election Day, based on historical patterns? Turns out the answer to this question—really, the only question that their data can properly answer—looks pretty favorable for Kerry. In all of the 13 cases, going back to 1952, the Labor Day margin between the candidates changed enough for Kerry to tie or surpass Bush in the popular vote and, in 11 of the13 cases, the change was in Kerry's direction (that is, in the direction of the candidate who was behind among RVs on Labor Day).
Moreover, if you compare Bush's position to the position of incumbent presidents who won their campaigns for re-election in this period, it doesn't look auspicious. In the five cases that qualify (Eisenhower, 1956; Johnson, 1964; Nixon, 1952; Reagan, 1984; and Clinton, 1996), winning incumbent presidents on Labor Day had an average lead of 20 points and a median lead of 19 points among RVs. Wow. |
