St Louis Renewable Energy Conference - Day 2
Posted by Heading Out on Friday October 13, 2006 at 4:39 PM EST
(Ed note - forgive the tenses, this was written late last night)
It should be remembered, in considering the nature of this conference, that it marks a significant step forward in the changes in supply that America's fuel will have to see. While there are many questions that can be raised about energy costs, nevertheless there is currently a major growth occurring in the number of plants that will supply ethanol, and thus in the amount that will be available to the general public. To those who ask "where will all the corn come from?" comes the answer from a farmer, that "that sure makes a difference from wondering if you are going to have a market, and at what price." From the presentations I heard yesterday and today, it seems that the energy future can be separated into three phases; the immediate short-term, where ethanol production from corn will grow to the point that 10% blends become the rule; some 7-10 years from now when cellulosic ethanol will start to provide significant competition; and somewhere beyond that the advent of biodiesel as the more attractive long-term fuel. And in making the first and second of these his platform, to this audience, Vinod Khosla's presentation resonated well.
Already ethanol volume has passed that for exports, to become the second largest market for US corn, according to today's talks, which included one from President Bush, who arrived to give the last keynote of the Conference. And, as a result, we all had to get to the Hall an hour earlier, in order to clear the enhanced security procedures.
The first talk was by ex-CIA Director James Woolsey, now with Booze Allen Hamilton, and Co-Chair of the Committee on the Present Danger, who had been asked to present a review of the first day's discussions. He was the most relaxed and funny of all the speakers at the meeting, and yet his talk was at heart, a sobering reality check on how our "Just-in-time" manufacturing ethic is highly vulnerable when applied to our energy supply. He divided the problem into malignant interference (a tree branch falls in Ohio and 50 million people lose power) and malignant interference, such as when a terrorist attack hits Abqaiq. And yet there is also the risk, on the one hand, that should the current King of KSA die, then rule may pass to the more fundamental Wahhabi faction, with a greater potential risk to American oil supplies. On the other hand, there was the risk that the market could be flooded with product causing investors to lose money and interest. He was dismissive of the Hydrogen Highway initiative, and pointed out that the success of the American railroad system was that the Government reduced the risk to investors by assuring them of the land, but did not tell them how to design the engine, wheels or caboose.
more
theoildrum.com |
