We need an aura of positivity around Microsoft for a change. The stock has to move up over 80, 90, 100 levels and get employee stock options well in the money and we will have cheering investors and cheering employees.
I don't know when the stock will start to move up and cross the 50 PE level? or 87, the stock has to move over the 50d, 200d mv average as well.
There are plenty of reasons for optimism. PC sales are rocketing in Latin America and Asia. Growth rates are in the 40 to 70% level. See below
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Latin America PC Boom
Demand tops 1.5 million units for the quarter, thanks to falling prices and a booming, Internet-savvy middle class. Compaq is the region's leader, by far.
Ana Luisa Herrera, ZDNet Latin America
08/24/00
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Latin America has seen an explosion in demand for PCs this year, according to two research firms. More than 1.5 million personal computers were sold in Latin America in the second quarter of 2000, handily passing forecasts by analysts, who predict the trend will continue until year's end.
According to research firms IDC and Dataquest, the tremendous growth in PC demand is fueled by Latin America's increasing interest in the Net. Already in the first quarter, the region's computer market posted its greatest growth in five years -- an increase of 50 percent over 1999 sales.
"Personal computer sales in Latin America in the second quarter this year have surpassed all our expectations," said Alexandra Martinez, chief analyst for IDC Latin America.
"The main reasons behind the growth," she added, "are price drops, growth of financing institutions, continued expansion of new computing channels (in banks, for example), and the large amount of publicity these products have received in the region."
Compaq is El Numero Uno
Compaq Computer Corp. is the region's top seller, with 24.5 percent of total market share, according to Dataquest. A distant second are Hewlett-Packard and IBM Corp., both with 5.2 percent of the market.
"(Sales growth) have been driven by a 99 percent increase in demand for home systems," said Luis Anavitarte, Dataquest's research director for Latin America and the Caribbean.
"The profile of the consumer is changing," added Anavitarte. "Consumers are no longer just upper-middle-class individuals who have the greatest buying power, but also members of an emerging middle class that until now had no access to a computer -- and that now sees itself involved in the explosive growth of the Net."
Both analysts agreed that dropping prices are a major factor for the surge.
IDC said that 1.8 million computers were exported to Latin America in Q2, topping analysts' expectations by 6 percent. Dataquest estimated that sales totaled 1.5 million units. Both estimates are substantial increases over sales in the year-before period, which Dataquest said comprised less than 1 million units. For the rest of the year, analysts expect the upward trend to continue, although not at the tremendous rate seen in the first and second quarters.
Brazil at the helm
Brazil is the most important market for computer manufacturers, despite problems with a weakened currency in recent years.
"Last year (Brazil's) economy was hurt (by the Real's devaluation) and its market was contracting, but now it's recovering, and (PC sales) have grown 93 percent compared with last year," said Anavitarte.
Anavitarte added that the region in general is bouncing back. Dataquest's statistics show Argentina has experienced 57 percent growth in computer sales, Chile 40 percent growth and Mexico 34 percent.
"Companies have regained confidence in Brazil and today there is high demand for Internet services and, therefore, for computers," said Jay Gumbiner, an analyst for IDC Latin America.
Gumbiner added that there's no underestimating the importance of growth trends in Mexico, Argentina and Chile, where demand for computers has shot up 90 percent since last year.
But the same cannot be said of Venezuela or Colombia, which the researchers said show the slowest demand growth.
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Copyright (c) 2000 ZD Inc. All Rights Reserved. ZDNet and ZDNet logo are registered trademarks of ZD Inc. Content originally published in Ziff Davis Media publications is the copyrighted property of Ziff Davis Media. Copyright (c) 2000 Ziff Davis Media. All Rights Reserved. Titles of Ziff Davis Media publications are trademarks of Ziff Davis Publishing Holdings Inc.
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