Since I am of the opinion that a wide Romney victory in November is quite likely and becoming more so each day, I would like to refute your 5 points with opposing arguments on the other side that appear to me to be equally valid.
(1) A complicit media ...a strong trend in increasing viewers of Fox and decreasing viewers of CNN and MSNBC, and the diminished influence and subscriber loss of the NY Times, all of which suggest to me an increasing degree of discrimination by viewers and readers
Just witness the recent lawsuit filed by 43 Catholic institutions against HHS ...ignored by the media to be sure, but I have to believe that the net loss of Obama votes by disgruntled Catholic and religious freedom voters reacting to his policy will exceed the Obama vote gain by those who are delighted to be promised free contraceptives by their Catholic charities
(2) Billions in campaign contributions from powerful special interest groups....increased publicity being given to the fact that more and more 2008 Obama voters are disaffected and withholding their financial support, and the fact that the total dollars raised by Republicans may very well come close to if not exceed that of the Democrats
(3) New voter registration laws that dramatically favor the registration of democrat voters....increased efforts in many states to not only clean up their voter rolls but also put in place voter ID requirements, particularly in potential swing states
(4) Massive potential voter fraud ....see no. 3
(5) The fact that the American voter is probably less well-informed than at any time in the nation's history...the disaffection of two groups of Obama supporters: the independents, who are disappointed at his failure to heal racial divisions and his anti-growth policies, and the far left who are disappointed at his failure to close Guantanamo and force thru a single payer health system
There are IMO a number of other straws in the wind that suggest an Obama defeat.
....weakening economy, the number 1 factor in reelecting a president
....highly probable win by Scott Walker in his fight on the recall vote, along with the associated loss of union dues and the loss of union influence, not only in Wisconsin, but almost certain to have a national effect as well
....a continuing stream of erstwhile Obama supporters (e.g. Maureen Dowd) with critical columns detailing his failures (even though the columnists will of course vote for him anyway, the negatives they continue to point out are very likely to be having an effect on some undecided voters in the middle)
....The popularity of books like "The Amateur", now at the top of the NYTimes best seller list
Intrade has reflected a distinct probabilities trend away from Obama and towards Romney. I fully expect that trend to be reflected in the polls over the next several months. |
