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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End?
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To: longnshort who wrote (48)2/6/2005 11:06:59 PM
From: kryptonic6   of 1183
 
According to Richard Heinberg, China will peak around 2007, and the Asia-Pacific region as an aggregate peaked in 2004.

China does not have spare capacity to share anyway - they are currently gobbling up contracts with Venezuela, Canada, and Russia to secure even MORE oil supplies to quench their skyrocketing demand. China has surpassed Japan as the 2nd biggest oil importer in the world (the U.S. is #1) and it's automobile industry is booming at an alarming rate. Whatever new finds China makes they'll need for themselves.

Remember, discovery of major oil reserves (which also follows a rough bell curve) peaked in 1962. Basic logic dictates that if the discovery of a finite resource peaks and begins a permanent decline (as global conventional oil discovery has), then that peak in discovery will inevitably be followed by a peak in production. We discovered nearly all of the oil on this earth decades ago, and we're merely on borrowed time from when the production curve reflects that decline (it already has in that global conventional oil production has plateued in recent decades).

If you were looking for a swing producer that could possibly flood the market with oil in the near future, you're not going to find one - even Saudi Arabia has had trouble increasing capacity to the extent it's been demanded. As Richard Heinberg says, the party is over.

Jesse
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