Auric, what expertise is RDRT bringing to the table in DWDM? They manufacture GMR recording heads last time I looked, the only common technology is some of the ion deposition and PVD processes used (simultaneously), you really think that they can come up to speed on this and be in mass production within a year? Right now they hope that the cash burn will not get them into the grave. They have at least two or three quarters before they turn positive cash flow, and if we enter a slow down, things might become very ugly for them (including failure). Personally, I think that a VECO salesman sold them a bill of goods (use the same equipment for both), it takes more than knowledge of some of the processes, it takes a lot of very complicated Q&A and big cap investment to get into this business and succeed. RDRT might have the will, but as far as can see, they do not have the purse.
The stock has acted nicely during the end of last week, but to me it smells like a P&D. APM had a similar jerk just prior to "expiring" into the sun set.
Zeev |
