Yes, a cut looks priced in here, and they could easily do a small one while tightening the language to discourage expectations of more ... sort of downgrade the 'There's never just one cut' rule ... they have other tools, the discount rate and policy with which it is applied, for one ... there's also the possibility of directly bailing out people stuck with these underwater mortgages, i hear there's something in the works on this already, don't know exactly what, but it sounds cheaper than immediately debasing the currency, and makes everything more complex, which is what governments most like to do
Bernanke doesn't have to do a Volcker to avoid doing a Greenspan, middle paths do exist, and he's his own man, meanwhile there are new factors as in changed trade patterns, changed balance in economies, etc - history never exactly repeats .... on BB, stan has an excellent post here [read the speech!] - Message 23865729
There is room for both gold and PM stocks to sell off without breaking trend, imho ... great charts here from vt - Message 23882088
So, short term, meaning a week or so, quite possibly soft ... still i don't plan to try trading it, prefer to focus on the mid-term, meaning two to six months or so, thinking golds are a great hold for that time, and the silvers could easily outperform them from where they're placed now |
