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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.76

+1.1%

Dec 8 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (4913)	8/14/2002 12:40:40 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) of 95536

Gottfried, Thanks for adding the graph. To me it shows that revenue follows the trend of backlog, but with a lag (maybe 2 Q's). So it is plausible, that even though orders will fall, that rev will be flat next Q. But disturbingly, I predict that backlog will fall somewhat hard. $150m to $200m in the next report. Now how will the share price react if in November AMAT's report shows flat rev, flat earnings, lower backlog, and lower new orders ? I shudder to contemplate such a fate. Will that unhappy sequence be moderated by a general pickup in the economy ? I really really hope so. Or Ork will eat us alive. And I think also Scott will be having quite a chuckle, too. So maybe the analysts are not that stupid, after all ? Gee, I was feeling much better before I saw that graph! Sarmad

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