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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (4916)	8/14/2002 1:29:04 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	of 95525

RE: "What counts as always is end demand for the products that use chips..." Yes. It is also obvious that end demand is going nowhere for "same old, same old". The real question is innovation and "new" products. Most of front end semi-equip sales are for new technology. Customers are carefully buying to fill end user and foundry customer demands for leading edge products. This is a slow, gradual process that doesn't track past semi-equip recoveries. It is not dependent on the macro economy. Rather, the macro economy depends on it. A simple example is DVDs. It has experienced record growth for a new electronics product in a dismal economic, political (9/11) environment. Technology is about new. Moore's Law is still the engine for progress and many chip companies are showing good growth rates for their most advanced products.

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