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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4916)6/28/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: Ron Bower  Read Replies (1) of 9980
 
Zeev, (somewhat OT)

Reading your recent posts, certain questions come to mind.

With the trend of US companies to buy back stock rather than pay dividends, what will happen when the baby boomers retire and begin looking for income producing investments versus growth?

Can the emphasis on large cap stocks continue when they are selling at such high PEs and BV multiples? The huge amounts of monies entering the market and these monies going primarily into large caps looks very much like a Ponzi pyramid to me.

The US has had a long 'boom' economy. At a certain point, consumers reach a point where spending slows (they have what they want and their debt prompts them to stop spending = 'economic cycles'). US companies have few options to continue growth. We are already in the period of mergers and acquisitions to give the appearance of growth, but the net effect becomes a larger company generating no more revenue than the separate. For US companies to continue growth, wouldn't it have to come from non-US consumers?

If we have an outflow of monies due to imports and capital expenditures by US companies into other countries, wouldn't this also contribute to a decline in the US economy?

Finally, would all of the above make the US market further overvalued and require a correction? That the outflow of monies from equities into bonds and other income producing investments lower interest rates and thus cause a devaluing of the $US?

Doesn't this make investment in other countries more attractive to the long term investor?

TIA,
Ron
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