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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: Oliver & Co who wrote (4918)7/21/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton  Read Replies (1) of 6136
 
pulled the following ML estimates (I thought from 5/98, but their Viracept sales estimates look awfully low for then ... $359M vs the actual $409M) from some thread. It's hard to read, and it's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison on a number of data points since things have changed since then. Just posting in case it will be useful to anyone.



Table 1: Agouron Pharmaceuticals - Income Statement and Margin Analysis 1995-2002E
($ Millions Except per Share Data)

Income Statement 1995 1996 1997 1998E 1999E 2000E 2001E 2002E
Viracept Sales --- --- 57.0 359.3 438.1 454.6 478.3 482.8
Viracept Royalties --- --- --- 4.3 14.5 31.1 42.6 46.4
Research Income 26.7 56.0 75.1 60.8 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0
Total Revenues 26.7 56.0 132.1 424.5 487.6 520.7 555.9 564.2
COGS 0.0 0.0 24.6 175.1 210.2 213.4 221.8 224.8
Profit Before JT 26.7 56.0 107.5 295.7 328.2 360.7 390.2 398.3
JT Payment 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.1 83.1 86.4 90.8 92.1
Gross Profit 26.7 56.0 107.5 228.6 245.1 274.3 299.4 306.2
Direct R&D Expenses 36.3 71.0 108.1 121.2 127.3 131.1 135.1 139.1
G&A 4.4 9.0 32.9 57.2 64.0 67.2 69.3 71.3
Oper. Income (14.0) (24.1) (33.6) 50.2 53.8 76.0 95.1 95.7
Net Interest 1.0 4.5 5.4 4.6 6.0 8.3 10.2 0.1
Pretax Income (12.9) (19.5) (28.2) 55.2 59.8 84.2 105.2 108.5
Tax Rate 0% 0% 0% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
Taxes Paid 0.0 0.0 (42.9) 22.1 23.9 33.7 42.1 43.4
Net Income (12.9) (19.5) (42.8) 33.1 35.9 50.5 63.1 65.1
Avg. Shares 14.6 19.7 26.9 33.1 34.0 34.5 35.0 35.5
Reported EPS ($0.89)($0.99)($1.60) $1.00 $1.05 $1.46 $1.80 $1.83
Calendar EPS (1.58) (1.65) (0.31) $1.27 $1.26 $1.63 $1.82 ----
Year over Year % Changes
Viracept --- --- --- 531% 22% 4% 5% 1%
Total Royalties ---- ---- ---- ---- 234% 114% 37% 9%
Total Revenues 64% 109% 34% -19% -42% 0% 0% 0%
Profit Before JT 64% 109% 92% 175% 11% 10% 8% 2%
JT Payment ---- ---- ---- ---- 24% 4% 5% 1%
R&D 52% 96% 52% 12%5% 3%3%3%
SG&A 47% 107% 265% 74% 12% 5% 3% 3%
Operating Income NM NM NM NM 7% 41% 25% 1%
Pre-Tax Income NM NM NM NM 8% 41% 25% 3%
EPS NM NM NM NM 5% 39% 23% 2%
Margin Analysis
Corp. Gross Margin 100.0% 100.0% 81.4% 48.6% 45.5% 47.8% 48.9% 49.1%
Viracept ---- ---- 56.8% 57.0% 57.0% 58.0% 58.5% 58.5%
R&D 135.9% 126.9% 81.9% 25.8% 23.6% 22.8% 22.1% 22.3%
SG&A 16.3% 16.1% 24.9% 12.1% 11.9% 11.7% 11.3% 11.5%
JT Payment ---- ---- ---- 16.6% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Oper. Income NM NM NM 10.7% 10.0% 13.2% 15.5% 15.4%
Net Income NM NM NM 7.0% 6.7% 8.8% 10.3% 10.4%
Source: Company Reports and Merrill Lynch Research Estimates
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