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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions

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To: Vendit™ who wrote (4937)	2/13/2005 9:47:13 PM
From: Walkingshadow	of 8752

Yes, to the extent that the markets think this will bring greater stability. Whether it will or not is arguable. Personally, I think the only "stable" situation in Iraq is one in which one group (doesn't really matter who) is able to dominate. That's been their history. Groups not in control are basically dormant volcanos waiting their chance to explode. Other possible longer term solutions will not develop in any short time frame, but could happen in with time if they like (probably at least decades). I don't think anybody is surprised at the outcome, so maybe the markets won't make much of it. Also, no surprise that the Sunnis don't accept the results, and they are behind most of the bloodshed for obvious reasons: ================================ Turnout was also low in the Sunni Arab provinces of Ninevah and Salaheddin, both insurgency centers. An American soldier was killed and another wounded in Salaheddin as the results were being announced in Baghdad. After results came out today, some Sunnis again rejected the whole process. "The elections were held to fight the Sunnis and were led by the Americans with the Kurds and Shiites," said Ramadi mechanic Abdullah al-Dulaimi. "The election results will lead to a sectarian war." Mohammed Bashar of the anti-American Association of Muslim Scholars said he questioned the figures because few international or U.N. monitors were present in Iraq for the vote. latimes.com ============================= But again, it matters much more what the markets think. I'll have to check the futures, but I can't see that this will change the overall course of things except in the very short term (a few days). I suspect the market has already priced in the expected Shiite win. T

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