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Strategies & Market Trends : India Coffee House

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To: sea_biscuit who wrote (4954)7/6/1999 9:14:00 PM
From: Shivram Hala  Read Replies (1) of 12475
 
> Actually, that is exactly what Kampani is saying! -- that the Indian > leadership and citizenry cannot assume (as they are doing now) that > Pakistan will behave rationally, and therefore, will not use the > nuclear option but merely bluff about it instead.

Not so. Statements from indian civilian and military leaders indicate that they are prepared for all eventuality, which is, that pakistan in a desperate/irrational measure will undertake a first strike (Pakistan has refused to sign a no-first strike pact). Pakistan knows for sure that any first strike requires that all 20 (possibly only 10-15 left in its arsenal) nuclear bombs are effective.For india it is a question whether the destruction that it causes to india be a bargain when the retaliation results in the complete annhilation of pakistan. That's an ugly question that indians will need to answer. But uglier so to for pakistan. Will the damage that it causes be worth the fact that they will not exist. Or maybe only a few million pakistanis existing in a devastated country.

> But Indians are being dense when they lull themselves into feeling > that (a)Pakistan is bluffing about using nuclear weapons against > India, and

Wrong. Indians know fully well that pakistan is being run by idiots and the demented. No amount of humiliation will make the establisment seek a saner path. Defeat after defeat will only intensify their hatred (that's why india allows pakistan to win in cricket. BTW we only win "practice matches" :) )


> (b) India will somehow be able to "tide over" the problem even if
> Pakistan makes a first strike.

See answers above. As far as indians can see we cannot help the pakistanis to think saner. Any eventuality will have to be dealth with.

> It is not enough if Pakistan is obliterated. India has gotta live
> after that. Somehow that doesn't seem to sink into the Indian
> psyche.

I and many others can comprehend the devastation but unlike pakistan india's resources are spread well even though large amounts may be in the vaults of our politicians. No machismo involved but the fact remains that pakistan can act irrationally and maybe will. Our choice is to minimize what they can do.
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