Terry,
I guess it's impossible to ever know for sure. Your thoughts could be right on the money. However, how, what , when ,etc. are even bigger questions. As has happened for 13 straight pres.
elections the market has always gone up double digits in the latter half of the year, except for the lousy Julys. The government can maneuver the numbers in any which way to get things to happen
the way they would like them to. Of course, Clinton would like all happy through the election. It's after that where I start to get nervous. Also, I've been hearing some rumors of late of possibly even
reducing the interest rate in the short term, which would help a run up, but who knows what will happen from that end. There are so many factors to influence market psychology, but the general feeling
of anxiety about when the big drop is going to occur seems to lead me to believe that when the opportunity arises something has to give, possibly later this year or early '97. How long it would take to set
up the next bull market would be another question.....almost immediately or after a while of sideways movement, which if a major drop occurs I suspect will happen.
The real problem here is that there is nothing really solid to base reactions on here....reminds me of the phrases running scared and self-fulfilling prophecy. Makes me nervous enough to consider changing
the buy and hold approach partially for those which have made nice enough profits. My problem here is that all of this ends up being mental masturbation, because I rarely call these things right anyway.
Good luck planning for Monday's opening bell.
Regards,
Marshall |
