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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Ed Don who wrote (4961)8/26/1997 9:16:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb   of 9285
 
Ed Don, you are welcome to post here in defense of Andrea. You are correct that it has had a nice bounce on the IBM news and I am under water on my short position. My response was to increase my short position. AND "news" often turns out to be something less than advertised after a few days, witness the $600 million DOD contract debacle. And the small float cuts both ways, it is very difficult for many of the longs to take profits without driving the price down. AND is very volatile, a careful trader can make money from either the long or the short side.

It should be noted that AND is one of 22 current short positions in my portfolio and only about 1% of the dollar value. I expect to make money (and am well ahead) on the entire group, but I will lose money on some individual issues and at the moment AND is one of my losers, you can't win them all.

My response to a losing short position is:

1. Re-evaluate the fundamentals, admit the mistake and bail out if things have changed, maybe even go long.
2. If the conclusion is to remain short, increase the position.

At the moment, my conclusion is #2--increase the position. There is no chance that I will be squeezed, the position is a small part of a large portfolio with substantial reserves. The false DOD contract announcement is my major reason for being short. It seems to me that AND may be trying to promote its stock price and such situations are often profitable shorts. As always, do your own research and make your own decisions.
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