From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** A new generation? A brand-new NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll is further evidence that the number of new voters who turn out on Election Day could very well decide the presidential contest. According to the survey, new and lapsed voters (those who didn't vote in 2004) back Obama over McCain by a 2-to-1 margin, 61%-30%. If you take the Bush (62 million) and Kerry (59 million) vote totals from 2004, assume turnout increases by 20 million additional voters (about what it did in 2004), and assume Obama wins these additional voters 2-to-1, then Obama would best McCain nationally by more than three million voters, 72.4 million to 68.7 million. But if turnout increases by just 10 million, then the numbers become Obama 65.7 million, McCain 65.3 million -- a virtual tie. “An Obama victory could very well depend on getting these folks to the polls,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R). What’s more, we’ve done the math that a 20% turnout increase in swing states like Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia can flip these red states from red to blue. What has to worry the Republicans is that this is a whole generation of new voters who are leaning Democratic. What does that mean for the GOP’s future? It was a whole new generation of young voters who grew up with Reagan who helped bring in a Republican Congress and two terms for George W. Bush. This generation of new voters grew up Clinton, could they be what puts the Democrats on a 20-year power trajectory? |
