I think that this article is talking about total liquids production, but I'm not sure. In any case, production and exports are down.
kommersant.com
Nov. 03, 2006
Oilmen Fail to Keep Achieved
It appears the stable growth in hydrocarbon output has ended in Russia. Production suffered minor decline in September and October, and the annual growth is estimated at around 2 percent by results of this year.
Russia produced 399.091 million tons of crude and gas condensate in the first ten months of this year, Industry and Energy Ministry reported Thursday. Similar to September, the aggregate production lowered a bit past month. The daily output slid to 9.71 million bbl in October vs. 9.75 million bbl a month earlier.
If the current trend is maintained, Russia will post just 2-percent annual increase at close of this year. And it is yet unclear how the energy crisis that is forecasted to hit Western Siberia this winter will affect production of crude oil.
The crude exports went down as well. Transneft attributes October decline of 2.2 percent to increased efficiency of domestic deliveries. For the crude oil product, the domestic demand goes up on expected surge in demand for black oil in winter of 2006/2007 generated by the housing and communal services, by divisions of RAO UES of Russia and by the energy crisis forecasted for this winter.
It is worth mentioning that the greatest reduction in shipment was registered in the exports to far abroad countries, while deliveries to the CIS shed by no more than 0.2 percent. As to the forecasts, a new cycle of stable growth in output won't begin in Russia till 2014, IEA predicted.
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A"s to the forecasts, a new cycle of stable growth in output won't begin in Russia till 2014, IEA predicted.
The HL model is predicting significant production declines from existing production."
I started this export/import debate with my January/2006 post on TOD predicting, based on an analysis of Khebab's graphs, that we would see continued production declines in Norway, and that Saudi Arabia and Russia would decline this year.
Norway has continued declining.
Saudi Arabia is declining (they say it is "voluntary.")
According to the EIA, five of the eight months of Russian production this year are below December. IMO, Russia is showing production fluctuations right before the terminal decline in existing production.
westexas on Friday November 03, 2006 at 7:57 PM EST
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