America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: jack rand who wrote (4987)	10/9/1997 3:40:00 PM
From: jack rand	of 13594

THE REPOST: FY98 Consensus has been $0.88 going back to June. Annual take from deals announced in past three months. (i.e. since amazon, CUC, etc. late June/early Jul) mil$/yr 9/12 Onsale 0.4 9/18 N2k 6 10/08 Preview travel 6 10/09 Amer greetings 1 ---- $13.4 /yr /116m shares = $0.12 /yr assume 50% gross margin = $0.06 pre-tax/yr at tax rate 35% = $0.04 after-tax in FY98 Assume Q1E is met. Q1 (sep)E $0.12 (after-tax) (reflecting amazon, CUC, 1-800 Flowers); Plus $0.04 above $0.16 $0.72 to go to meet FY98 $0.88 consensus. But deal rate in Q1 was $0.01/quarter, 24 X what's needed PER QUARTER in Q2,3,4 to meet FY98E of $0.88. Won't even get into FY99E's $1.66 now.

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