Interesting HUI, Price of Gold analysis here:
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re: Saville's - "Gold's Missing Monetary Premium"
kitco.com
["...we don't expect great things from gold over the next 3-6 months, especially in US$ terms. This is partly because we think the US$ rally that began in January is not yet even halfway complete in terms of either time or price, but there's a lot more to it than that.
The main reason we don't think gold's recent advance is the start of the next major upward leg in its long-term bull market is that gold-related investments are rising in price alongside rises in the prices of almost all other assets. Genuine gold bull markets are all about increasing risk aversion and declining confidence in central banks, but the recent run-up in the gold price has occurred in an environment where investors, as a group, have exhibited minimal risk aversion and supreme confidence that the Fed will neither overshoot nor undershoot in its rate-hiking campaign. In particular, inflation expectations have remained low enough to give bond investors that 'warm and fuzzy feeling' at the same time as those playing the "inflation trade" have been having a great time.
Gold trades like money and tends to out-perform other investments when confidence in the official forms of money is falling, but as a result of the current widespread perception of a 'goldilocks' economic environment gold is not receiving any monetary premium." ]
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Frank P - this goes right to the heart of your question of whether Gold is a commodity, or money.
Imho; the answer is that it is both.
And once again; Traders need to know which influence is presently dominating the current trend for Gold.
Of late - Gold unfortunately; has been trading like a commodity...ie: following Copper, Oil and the CRB.
Saville...once again, one of the "best thinkers" in the Gold Sector is correct in his analysis that Gold is not trading bullishly as money/currency.
Even more importantly in my opinion, is that the HUI and Goldstocks have followed and not led the Price of Gold.
Neither are indicative of a true Bull Market for Gold, or Goldstocks.
Saville... is on the right track there.
Going back to the TA Picture - here are some interesting Charts from Ronald Rosen:
Rosen is ALSO predicting significant lower lows for Gold and Goldstocks in the nearterm.
[ "There is much being written about the imminent rise in the price of gold and gold shares. There are numerous reasons why I believe there is more corrective action ahead before gold and the gold shares rally and the next more powerful second phase starts." ]
kitco.com
The single most difficult component to successfull trading; especially concerning one's favorite sectors, stocks, or theme's.... is to become emotionally detached from ALL Trading Decisions...
I've come to believe that not only is it "the" single most difficult thing to accomplish in trading...but, that unfortunately; it's virtually impossible for perhaps 90% of all Traders.
We see it every day on SI...
Many Goldbugs couldn't have been more bearish at the recent bottom of this move in the HUI/Goldstocks...and couldn't have been more bullish at the top.
...you don't make and won't keep - much money that way.
GoldBull, Bear, Bug, or Pig... there's gold in them thar posts above...
We can only "take" what the Market Giveth...and remember; if you want 'too long' to taketh... Mr. Market - won't.
Slider`
PS: vis a vis the US Dollar - Chicago's Fed Pres' Moskow - pushes for continued Fed Hikes:
money.cnn.com
One other thought:
re: The Gold:Oil ratio that many are opining about...
There is such a "disconnect" in Oil Prices that the 'ratio' is virtually irrelevant here... especially as a Trading Tool on any interim basis.
Much more valid imo, are:
Gold:CRB
HUI:Gold
Gold:USD
HUI:USD |
